Ten years of the Paris Agreement: Hope for change clouded by climate realities

Ten years ago today, on 12 December 2015, the leaders of 195 countries, meeting in France at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), ratified the Paris Agreement. The signatory countries pledged to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change". It was a moment described by many as historic.

The aim was to keep "the global average temperature increase well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" and to continue efforts "to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".

But ten years on, the mission is far from complete. In a report published on 4 November, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) stated that temperature rise projections for the current century "are now between 2.3 and 2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C".

"We will not be able to keep global warming below 1.5°C in the next few years. Exceeding this limit is inevitable", said UN Secretary General António Guterres.

And the future does not look any brighter. During his first term, US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement shortly after his inauguration. According to the executive order signed by the president, the agreement is one of a number of international organisations and agreements that do not reflect US values.

216 million people at risk

Global warming could force up to 216 million people to migrate within their own countries in search of better living conditions, warned the World Bank in September 2021. In its report entitled "Groundswell", it explained that people "will migrate from areas where water availability and agricultural productivity are declining, as well as from areas affected by sea-level rise and storm surges".

Earlier this year, Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), pointed out that "Europe is the fastest-warming continent and is bearing the brunt of extreme weather events and climate change".

And previous years have not been short of examples. Last August, major fires ravaged Portugal and Greece, where more than 150 fires were detected in a single day.

In October 2024, the Valencia region in Spain was hit by exceptionally intense flooding. A year's worth of rain fell in the space of just eight hours, claiming more than 220 lives.

A month earlier, storm Boris hit Central Europe. The floods that followed killed more than twenty people.

Heatwaves, droughts and rainy spells

Global warming is already having, and will continue to have, a direct impact on our populations. In France, "this rise in temperature is +2.1°C over 2015-2024 (compared with 1900-1930) and could reach +4°C by 2100 in a global warming scenario of +3°C", warns Météo-France.

And the effects of global warming are numerous. In particular, the meteorological agency explains that with each degree rise in temperature, "the air can contain around 7% more water vapour, which increases the potential for intense rainfall", and that the oceans will gradually lose their capacity to absorb CO2. "The ocean stores around 91% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas emissions. But as it gets warmer, it gradually loses its capacity to absorb carbon", it explains.

This disruption will also exacerbate the rise in sea levels and make heatwaves "much more frequent". Droughts will also be "more severe", and episodes of intense rainfall "more marked".

In a report published on 9 December, the UN calls for an "interconnected, whole-of-society and whole-of-government" approach to tackling the climate challenge. Drawn up by 287 scientists from 82 countries, the report describes the devastating impacts that climate change will unleash if nations do not unite to transform systems such as energy and food. The report also warns that climate change could cut annual global GDP by 4% by 2050 and cost millions of lives.

Climate sabotage

Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, a number of climate associations have once again sounded the alarm. On Thursday, Greenpeace, Action Justice Climat Paris and ANV-COP 21 unfurled a giant banner near the Eiffel Tower featuring Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, among others.

"This action denounces the politicians in power who, for the last ten years, have favoured polluting industries and billionaires over the fight against climate change and the general interest", said ANV-COP 21.

Greenpeace, for its part, drew a "bitter" conclusion: "Misinformation is on the rise, the criminalisation of environmentalists is on the increase, and ecological setbacks are multiplying", wrote the association, targeting France "which is still not meeting its climate targets".

"Climate sabotage is not inevitable; it is the result of political choices dictated by private interests rather than the general interest", Greenpeace added.

Earlier this week, authors of the UNEP quadrennial Global Environment Outlook said the world needs to adopt more policies to jointly tackle climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation and pollution.

The report argued those issues are inextricably linked and require solutions that include increased spending and financial incentives to transition away from fossil fuels, encourage sustainable agricultural practices, curb pollution and limit waste.

Experts have warned that the world is nearing a tipping point on climate change, species and land loss and other harms. But efforts to address those problems largely have been pursued through individual agreements that haven't made nearly enough progress, they said.

Instead, they advocate an approach that involves every area of government, the financial sector, industry and citizens and a circular economy that recognizes that natural resources are limited.

“What we’re saying is we can become much more sustainable, but it will take unprecedented change to transform these systems,” said Bob Watson, one of the report’s lead authors and a former top NASA and British climate scientist. “It has to be done rapidly now because we’re running out of time.”