Why European life expectancy gains have slowed and how to boost longevity again

Life expectancy may have fallen across Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic, but longevity gains were tapering off for nearly a decade beforehand – and a new study sheds light on why.

Europeans born today can expect to live into their 80s, far outpacing most of the world, but that may not always be the case.

While life expectancy surged in the 1990s and early 2000s, it slowed in the 2010s before plummeting during the pandemic and rebounding in its aftermath, offering clues about how government policies shape health outcomes.

The new study on these changes, which was published in The Lancet Public Health journal, included Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden, as well as the United Kingdom nations of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

Across these 20 countries, Europeans gained an average of 0.23 years of life expectancy per year between 1990 and 2011, as deaths from heart disease and cancer fell.

That means every year for two decades, people could expect to live nearly three months longer than those born just one year earlier.

“Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year,” Nick Steel, a professor at the University of East Anglia in the UK and the study’s lead researcher, said in a statement.

“But this is no longer the case”.

Longevity gains slowed to 0.15 years (1.8 months) of annual added life expectancy from 2011 to 2019, according to the analysis.

UK countries, led by England, saw the most stagnation in the 2010s, followed by Germany and Spain. Meanwhile, life expectancy barely budged in Iceland and the deceleration was minimal in other Nordic countries.

The study authors said the overall slowdown was due to an increase in deaths from heart disease tied to obesity, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, poor diets, and a lack of exercise.

Independent researchers said that some of the shift could also be due to population-level changes over time.

“The demographics of the European population have changed markedly in some countries such as the UK, France, and Germany because of increased migration compared to Nordic countries,” Tom Sanders, professor emeritus of nutrition and dietetics at King's College London, said in a statement.

Pandemic impact

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy fell in most of the countries studied.

Respiratory infections and other pandemic-related health issues drove the downturn from 2019 to 2021, but countries where life expectancy gains had slowed most in the 2010s were also more affected by the pandemic.

For example, Greece and England saw the biggest decreases in life expectancy during the pandemic, losing a respective 0.61 and 0.6 years – more than seven months each.

Meanwhile, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland continued to see their life expectancies rise, and longevity remained level in Belgium.

That indicates people in the Nordics, Ireland, and Belgium were better prepared to weather the pandemic, the study authors said.

“Comparing countries, national policies that improved population health were linked to better resilience to future shocks,” Steel said.

How to boost life expectancy

The study authors said government policies could try to curb health risk factors by promoting healthy diets and exercise and ensuring access to medical care.

Other research has shown that greater public investment in education and disability services corresponds with a longer life expectancy, as does having a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

Meanwhile, a 2021 study from England indicates that cuts to local government spending may increase gaps in life expectancy between wealthier and more deprived areas.

The study authors said, however, it’s still possible to turn around Europe’s recent longevity losses.

“Life expectancy for older people in many countries is still improving, showing that we have not yet reached a natural longevity ceiling,” Steel said.

More recent data from the European Union indicates that life expectancy has rebounded somewhat since the pandemic, with the average person expected to live to 81.5 years in 2023.

Austria, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands, Greece, and Germany were the only EU countries where life expectancy continued to fall that year.

“Life expectancy mainly reflects mortality at younger ages, where we have lots of scope for reducing harmful risks and preventing early deaths,” Steel said.