Major album releases linked to 15% rise in traffic deaths, study finds

A new US study suggests traffic fatalities increase when music streaming surges. Researchers found that the number of traffic deaths was 15.1% higher on days when major music albums were released than on surrounding days.

The researchers say using smartphones to stream music could be an overlooked source of driver distraction. They stress, however, that the study does not show that streaming music caused the additional deaths.

The study, published in JAMA Network Open, examined 233,809 traffic fatalities in the US between 2017 and 2022, using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System.

Swift, Drake, Bad Bunny released news albums

Researchers focused on the release dates of the 10 major albums that generated the highest number of first-day streams during the study period.

The albums included some of the biggest releases of recent years, including Taylor Swift's Midnights and Red (Taylor's Version), Drake's Certified Lover Boy, Bad Bunny's Un Verano Sin Ti, Kendrick Lamar's Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers and Harry Styles' Harry's House.

They then compared the number of traffic deaths on the days those albums were made available on streaming platforms with deaths during the 10 days before and after each release.

The approach provided what researchers described as a kind of natural experiment:

Album release dates are determined by the music industry rather than by road conditions or traffic risks. So when a highly anticipated album comes out, it can create a sudden increase in music streaming without being directly related to factors such as weather or driving conditions.

That makes it possible to ask whether anything else changes at the same time.

Traffic deaths rose alongside streaming

On the 10 album-release days, people streamed music an average of 123.3 million times, compared with 86.1 million streams on the surrounding days. That's an increase of about 43%.

Traffic deaths also increased. Researchers recorded an average of 139.1 deaths on album-release days, compared with 120.9 on the surrounding days. That's about 18 more deaths per day, or 15.1% more.

Overall, the researchers estimate that about 182 more people died in traffic crashes on the 10 release days than would have been expected based on the surrounding days.

It's not simply about listening to music

The findings do not suggest that having music playing in the car is inherently dangerous. Instead, the researchers were interested in the possibility that smartphones create a different kind of distraction.

Listening to a familiar playlist requires little interaction but finding a newly released album can be different. A driver may unlock a phone, open a streaming app, search for an artist, browse an album and select a track.

Each of those actions can take attention away from the road.

The increase in traffic deaths was strongest among younger and male drivers. It was also higher in crashes involving only one person and in cars with infotainment systems.

These patterns may offer clues about the role of distraction, suggesting that interacting with technology while driving, rather than simply listening to music, may be part of the problem.

Testing the “Friday effect”

Most major album releases take place on Fridays, which creates an obvious complication.

Fridays can have different traffic patterns from other days of the week, and they could potentially be associated with different numbers of crashes regardless of what music is being released.

The researchers therefore carried out additional analyses focusing specifically on Fridays. The increase in fatalities remained.

They also conducted placebo tests using randomly selected dates and Fridays. In most of those simulations, the increase in traffic deaths was smaller than the effect observed around the actual album-release dates.

These tests strengthen the case that the association was not simply the result of random fluctuations or the fact that many releases happened on Fridays.

Limitations of the study

The researchers did not know whether the people who died in the crashes were actually streaming music, using their smartphones or interacting with an infotainment system at the time.

The study only shows that three things occurred together: major album releases, a sharp increase in music streaming and a rise in traffic fatalities. That does not mean one caused the other.

Other factors could potentially have contributed to the increase. And because the study was observational, it cannot establish a direct causal link between streaming music and fatal crashes.

The researchers therefore describe online music streaming through smartphones as a potential contributor to distracted driving, rather than proving that it was responsible for the deaths.

Distraction while driving is a growing problem

The findings nevertheless highlight how distracted driving may be changing as smartphones become increasingly integrated into everyday activities.

Drivers have long faced distractions such as adjusting a radio or changing a CD. Smartphones have added a much wider range of potential distractions.

With smartphones competing constantly for people's attention, distracted driving may no longer be limited to texting or making calls. Sometimes, it may start with something as ordinary as wanting to hear the new Taylor Swift album.