Europe jolted by the Kremlin’s ‘hybrid’ escalation

This morning, there’s a palpable sense here that the confrontation between Russia and European nations has entered a dangerous new phase. Leaders across Europe have issued scathing condemnations after Germany formally concluded yesterday that the Kremlin was responsible for a recent attempted drone attack on Leipzig airport.

Not at war, but…: Announcing fresh sanctions on Moscow in response to the incident – including tighter entry controls on Russian nationals – German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said on Tuesday: "Let me be very clear: we are not at war. But we are the target of hybrid attacks on a daily basis.” Germany has also raised its threat level from “general” to “high”.

‘Malign actions’: NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte said that the evidence pointing to Russia was “clear”, adding that the Alliance would “strengthen (its) ability to deter and defend Allies against any threat – including malign actions like those seen in Leipzig”.

VDL pledges response: European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen also promised a "clear response”. She will meet Rutte later today for talks which, according to NATO and EU officials, will be focused on the response to the Kremlin’s hybrid attacks and how the Alliance and the EU executive can work more closely to counter the threat.

Messages of solidarity with Germany have also poured in from European capitals, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying that Europe will “not be intimidated” and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni vowing a “united response”.

While European nations have seen a string of suspected Russian hybrid attacks in recent years – including exploding parcels at a depot site in Germany and an arson attempt at a Vilnius Ikea store – this is the first time that the finger has been pointed so directly at Moscow.

Not so hybrid?: It also comes against the backdrop of mounting speculation that President Putin could be looking to escalate his hybrid offensive against European nations into a more direct confrontation – something NATO and EU officials are pushing back against.

But reports that CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s secret dash to Moscow was intended to dissuade Putin from escalating against the Baltic states have added to the sense of unease across the continent.

The developments in Germany are set to spill into the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers, who gather today in Ireland, Jorge Liboreiro writes.

High Representative Kaja Kallas says the bloc is preparing “the most far-reaching sanctions” against Moscow yet. Over 1,600 companies and individuals are on a draft list under discussion, but the number is likely to go up in light of Berlin’s announcement.

Pressure for Patriots: Support for Ukraine will also be high on the agenda. Member states are scrambling to find ways to provide Kyiv with the air defence systems it desperately needs to repel Russia’s growing waves of ballistic missiles. Kallas says there is “no concrete success” yet in convincing Greece and Spain to donate their Patriot interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning: Meanwhile, in a statement made last night, President Zelenskyy issued a direct warning to “every airline” that “Russian airspace will effectively be closing” due to Ukrainian drone operations. It follows a week of relentless Russian attacks on Kyiv and non-stop air-raid alerts in the capital.

The Ukrainian president stressed that Kyiv did not threaten civilian aviation, but said those continuing to use Russian airspace and the country’s major airports would have to reckon with the growing presence of Ukrainian drones.

“Today we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, everyone who still uses key Russian airports — Russian skies are becoming completely dangerous,” Zelenskyy said. “Although the Russian authorities do not report this as they should, Russian skies will de facto be closed.” Our Ukraine correspondent Sasha Vakulina has more.

Cash for Ukraine: Russia’s escalatory tactics, Jorge writes, including non-stop drone attacks aimed at disrupting economic activity, are rapidly increasing the material costs for Ukraine and casting doubt on whether the EU’s €90 billion loan will last until the end of 2027, as originally intended. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence faces a €23 billion deficit.

The European Commission is reluctant to reopen the delicate debate so soon after approving the loan. Politics are fraught, and there’s no clear path forward. For now, the plan foresees disbursing €45 billion this year and €45 billion next year.

“In terms of longevity, that is what is foreseen: that this €90 billion loan should be disbursed (over) the two years,” Paula Pinho, the Commission's chief spokesperson, told Jorge on Tuesday. “We are focused now on what is already a very ambitious disbursement plan, and for the moment that’s where our focus lies.”

Today’s informal meeting will also touch upon the reform of the bloc’s foreign policy, which global turbulence has put under unprecedented strain. A group of 11 countries has joined forces to demand an end to “obstructive” vetoes (remember Viktor Orbán?) by moving from unanimity to qualified majority voting. “We must ensure that this culture of consensus fosters common action rather than preventing it – otherwise we will have legitimacy but no strength,” the signatories write.

Jorge got hold of the letter and broke it down for us.

China must deliver concrete results by October or face ‘harsher measures’, EU trade chief tells Euronews

Beijing must deliver “concrete results” by an October deadline or face “harsher measures” from the EU, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has exclusively told Euronews’ Maria Tadeo, as Brussels rushes to rein in China’s record trade surplus with the bloc.

Ongoing talks between Beijing and Brussels are intended to find an agreement to rebalance the trading relationship and deflate the EU’s ballooning trade deficit with China, which currently stands at a staggering €359.8 billion.

The next two weeks are set to be crucial, with Šefčovič set to hold a video call with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao in mid-September.

“This is super political,” Šefčovič told Euronews, stressing that European leaders want to see results by October.

If dialogue does not deliver results, the EU could resort to defensive instruments.

While Šefčovič did not go into detail about what retaliatory measures could look like, he said Brussels is looking to finalise a “diversification instrument” designed with China in mind. He also said the EU is now far more united in its objectives for the negotiations.

“They [EU27] want to see the direction of travel. They want to even have a concept for the solution of this issue, a pilot scheme,” Šefčovič said.

“I’m trying to do it through these negotiations, but they have to bring us very concrete results. Otherwise, of course, there will be a strong political movement to push for, I would say, harsher measures.”

Maria and our trade reporter Peggy Corlin have the full report.

More from our newsrooms

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ECB rate hike looms as energy shock pushes inflation to 3.3%. With eurozone inflation at 3.3% and energy costs surging, markets are pricing in another ECB rate rise on 10 September. ECB economists say this energy-driven episode looks nothing like the demand-fuelled surge of 2021-22. Eleonora Vasqueshas more.

US launches new strikes in southern Iran, Tehran responds with attacks across region. Hostilities have flared up again in the Middle East, with the US military launching new strikes on installations along Iran’s southern coast, and Tehran responding immediately with missile and drone attacks on Jordan. Nathan Rennolds and Peter Barabas have the details.

We're also keeping an eye on

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte in Brussels. Both will deliver statements to the press at 12.45 CET.
• EU foreign affairs ministers gather for an informal meeting in Wicklow, Ireland
• The Spanish centre-right Popular Party and far-right Vox party will hold separate demonstrations outside the European Parliament at 12.00 CET, to protest against the Pedro Sánchez-led government’s management of the Ceuta crisis. Despite being organised separately, both gatherings will coincide at the same time and place.

That’s it for today. Jorge Liboreiro, Angela Skujins, Sasha Vakulina, Vincenzo Genovese and Peggy Corlin contributed to this newsletter.