Ukraine is not ready to join NATO or the EU, Juncker says

Jean-Claude Juncker, former president of the European Commission, has cautioned against Ukraine joining NATO as a form of security guarantee. 

Juncker warned that NATO membership for Ukraine could trigger Article 5—the NATO clause asserting collective defense, which could lead to a direct confrontation between the alliance and Russia. He emphasized that, as long as Ukraine is at war and under attack, it cannot become a NATO member.

"As long as Ukraine is under attack and at war, Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO," Juncker told The Europe Conversation.

Having served as president from 2014 to 2019, Juncker also reflected on U.S. President Donald Trump's long-standing admiration for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. He was not surprised by the U.S.'s stance, which seemed to align more with the Kremlin than with traditional European allies.

"I know from the past, having met President Trump so many times, that he has friendly feelings toward Russia and President Putin," Juncker said. "For example, during the G7 meetings, Trump advocated for Russia's membership, suggesting we transform the G7 into the G8."

Juncker also criticized Trump's rhetoric on the war in Ukraine, particularly his repeated claims about NATO membership being a central factor in the invasion. Last week, Trump reiterated his position that Ukraine should not join NATO, saying, "NATO, you can forget about—that’s probably the whole reason the thing started," referring to Ukraine’s potential membership as a security guarantee.

Juncker refuted Trump's claim, stating there was never an agreement with Russia to halt NATO's expansion. While acknowledging that the West made mistakes in its relations with Russia, he firmly stated that this did not justify the invasion of a sovereign nation.

“No, I don’t think that’s the case. First, we never promised Russia we would abstain from expanding NATO into Eastern and Central Europe," Juncker said. "That was never a promise, never stated, never written down. Second, while the West made some mistakes in its relationship with Russia, there was never a valid reason to resort to war. It’s easy to start a war; it's incredibly difficult to stop one."

Juncker also noted that if the West were to focus on what could have been done differently, Putin and the Russian public might interpret this as justification for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

“I don’t think Ukraine can accept an agreement without security guarantees,” Juncker said. “They have a strong need for such guarantees, and there will be no settlement without Ukraine's agreement.”

He went on to say that, although he once had good relations with Putin and didn’t foresee the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU must maintain some form of relations with Russia in the long term.

"I have lost trust in Putin and Russia, despite having had friendly relations with him," Juncker admitted. "I was very surprised when Russia attacked Ukraine. I never believed this could or would happen. But we need, I wouldn’t say 'normal' relations, but some form of relations with Russia. Russia is part of Europe, and we cannot change geography. Russia will remain where it is."

Ukraine was granted candidate status in June 2022, mere months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, which is now in its fourth year. Ukraine hopes to become a member by 2030. However, Juncker believes Ukraine is not yet ready for full EU membership. However,  a limited membership which would allow access to the single market but not the right to vote. 

"The European Union must be cautious when admitting new members," Juncker said. "Ukraine is not ready for membership. Its economy is not yet prepared to fully participate in the European internal market. The state structure of Ukraine does not yet fully reflect core European values. There is still corruption in Ukraine."