Climate change was a major US election issue in 2020. Why has it taken a back seat in 2024?

The next month could be make or break for global climate action. On 5 November, the US will vote for who becomes the next president. Shortly after, world leaders will meet for COP29 in Baku to take part in vital international climate talks.

The US is the world’s second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases after China. Last year, it broke a record set in 2019 by producing an average of 12.9 million barrels of crude oil a day.

The country plays a big role in global emissions and the international politics around climate change.

With the UN warning that the world is heading for more than 3C of warming as current policies to reduce emissions fall “miles short” of what is needed, this is a pivotal moment for global climate action.

Neither candidate has tapped into this urgency on the campaign trail, however - even after the deadly consequences of climate change-fueled weather wrought havoc in swing states over the last few months.

Hurricane Helene, one of the deadliest storms ever seen in the US, hit in September killing more than 220 people and causing widespread damage in North Carolina and Georgia. It was followed two weeks later by Hurricane Milton which left destruction in its wake as it tore through Florida. Scientists have said both storms were made worse by climate change.

Despite this, the 2024 election is a stark contrast to 2020 when climate was a major ballot issue, shooting to the top of the key concerns list for US voters.

This time around climate change has instead taken a back seat to other issues like the economy, immigration and foreign policy.

What have Harris and Trump said about climate change?

The two presidential candidates have wildly divergent views on climate change but neither have much concrete to say on tackling the issue.

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has provided few details on her climate and energy policy plans.

The transition away from fossil fuels was mentioned briefly as she reassured voters in Pennsylvania that she wouldn’t interfere with fracking and she has spoken about the creation of green jobs. At a rally in Wisconsin on Wednesday she praised young voters who “have only known the climate crisis” for leading “the charge to protect our planet and our future”.

The only mention of climate in her Democratic Convention speech was of the ability to “live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis” - a “fundamental freedom” she said was threatened by Trump.

Harris was part of a government that has passed the most ambitious climate legislation in US history. She cast the tie-breaking vote that passed the Inflation Reduction Act which promised around $370 billion (€341 billion) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by the end of this decade. Her campaign team has stated she intends to continue the policies implemented under the Biden administration.

Much of the faith placed in the Vice-President by the climate-conscious is based on this legacy. Citing strong backgrounds in climate policy, a number of environmental advocates have given their support to Harris and her running mate Tim Walz.

Trump and his running mate JD Vance, however, have repeatedly voiced doubts about climate change being a threat with Trump calling it “one of the greatest scams of all time”. The Republican campaign platform doesn’t mention climate change at all.

Trump has also made clear his intentions to dismantle existing climate regulations and roll back spending associated with the Inflation Reduction Act.

“Drill, baby, drill” has become somewhat of a Republican slogan with promises to bring down energy bills and cut inflation by tapping into the “liquid gold under our feet”.

Is climate change a major issue for US voters?

Polling suggests that climate change has become less of a deciding factor for many voters during this election than it was in 2020.

It ranks low on the list of major ballot issues for the 2024 election, according to Pew Research Center data. A survey of registered voters released at the beginning of September found that overall, 37 per cent said it was “very important” to their vote.

But there were wide differences between those who support Harris and those who support Trump. Just 11 per cent of Trump supporters said it was very important to their vote compared to 62 per cent of Harris supporters. For Harris voters, that puts climate change in their top five major ballot issues.

More recent polling released in early October by Gallup found that of 22 key election issues, climate change was one of only two viewed by less than a majority of voters as extremely or very important to their presidential choice. Just 21 per cent said climate change was of the utmost importance to their vote.

Again, voters showed a dramatic split based on who they supported. While 36 per cent of Democratic voters said climate change was extremely important in influencing their vote for president, just 5 per cent of Republican voters said the same.

Though there are widely divergent views about climate as an election issue, US voters are more sure about who they believe would tackle it more effectively.

The Gallup survey shows that a majority of voters overall (61 per cent) favour Harris over Trump to handle climate change. Predictably that figure is much higher at 97 per cent for Harris among Democratic voters.

When it comes to Trump, climate change is one of the issues Republican voters have the least faith in him to tackle, with a quarter believing that Harris would do it better.

Could climate have been more of an election issue?

Though climate change may have taken a back seat to other major election topics, that doesn’t mean individual environmental issues won’t influence who people vote for.

Significantly more people are now worried about the prevention of extreme weather events than they were in 2017, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication found earlier this year.

Several states have been looking to pass ‘Make Polluters Pay’ bills, which aim to make polluters like major fossil fuel companies bear the cost of cleaning up environmental disasters. A survey from think tank Data For Progress found that two-thirds of likely voters supported a bill to make polluters pay - including half of Republican voters.

The findings are in line with previous surveys conducted by the think tank in December last year. These showed that 64 per cent of people were more likely to vote for a candidate that prioritised policies making oil and gas companies pay a share of climate damages caused by their pollution.

And, for young people, the climate still remains high on their list of concerns. Political action group Sunrise Movement revealed in September that among the young voters it has contacted, it is a key issue alongside an Israel arms embargo.

Noah Foley-Beining, an organiser for the Sunrise Movement, said at the time that a sizable number of young people don’t want to vote for Harris until she “backs an arms embargo and puts forward a real climate plan”.

“Kamala Harris is missing a huge opportunity to energise and turn out young voters in historic numbers.”