Historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan might be signed in the US

The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia are set to meet US President Donald Trump for a peace summit in Washington on Thursday and Friday, which could advance a much-anticipated peace deal between the two countries.

After almost four decades of bitter conflict, Baku and Yerevan might finally settle for peace in the region and notably do it far from Moscow, with both former Soviet South Caucasus countries distancing themselves from Russia and the Kremlin's influence.

Holding a meeting in the White House alongside the US president would send a strong signal to Moscow regarding the two countries' commitment to finding a solution among themselves, but also redirect their foreign policy focus to the West.

It would also reinforce Trump’s broader effort to assert himself and the US as a major actor in resolving global conflicts.

The timing of the meeting in the White House would certainly rattle Moscow: on the day of Trump’s deadline for the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire, two of Russia’s former close allies will be in Washington, possibly signing their own historic peace accord.

Zangezur Corridor remains key

On 10 July, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi for the first formal bilateral meeting. The leaders aimed at finalising the details of the peace treaty between the two countries and forging a future side by side after nearly four decades of conflict. 

The critical issue on the peace talks agenda is the Zangezur Corridor — a proposed transport route designed to connect Azerbaijan's mainland with its enclave which borders Baku's ally Turkey via Armenian territory.

For Azerbaijan, the corridor offers a direct land connection to Nakhchivan, strengthens ties with Turkey and consolidates post-war gains through infrastructure diplomacy.

It would strengthen Azerbaijan’s position as a crucial transport and logistics hub on a global scale. But Azerbaijan did not want to have any third party involved and instead would prefer to have it under Baku’s control, without the US, Europe or Russia's involvement.

For Yerevan, the, the Zangezur Corridor would provide an opportunity to further integrate into wider trade networks, diversify its battered economy and attract foreign investment. Geopolitically, it would also help Armenia normalise relations with its neighbours.

But Yerevan fears it could threaten Armenian sovereignty and insists any route remain under Armenian control, wary that true “corridor” status could mean surrendering authority.

The 43-kilometre corridor through Armenia's Syunik Province is of strategic importance not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia. It would have an impact and repercussions for the geopolitical situation in the whole region and beyond.

And this is when the US is trying to step in.

Washington's interests and Moscow-Tehran opposition

The Armenian government’s press office said on Wednesday that the meeting in the White House aims to “promote peace, prosperity, and economic cooperation in the region”.

Washington indeed has economic interests in the South Caucasus.

A few weeks ago, the US offered to manage the Zangezur Corridor, which creates an uninterrupted land route facilitating cargo and passenger flow between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and ultimately Europe and Asia.

Ankara also sees the corridor as a critical link in its ambitions to become a significant energy and trade hub. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented on the importance of the corridor to journalists earlier in July. 

But the idea caused anger and fierce opposition in Russia and Iran. For Moscow and Tehran, the US involvement would threaten their control of north–south trade through the South Caucasus.  

Iran could lose leverage over its northward trade, being deprived of land access to the South Caucasus through Armenia.

Moreover, the corridor could expand Turkish influence and, now, bring a direct US presence right at Iran’s borders.

For the Kremlin, this would mean losing the last bits of its influence in what used to be its stronghold region.

Moscow’s former allies

While bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow has been gradually losing its influence in its decades-long stronghold in the South Caucasus region.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed complete control of the Karabakh region after a lightning military campaign, following a decades-long conflict with Armenia in which the Kremlin was a central actor.

Almost two years later, Yerevan and Baku made history away from Russia by agreeing on the text of a peace accord and normalising their relations after a bloody conflict that until recently had no end in sight.

Moscow has been trying to repair the cooperation with both Baku and Yerevan, offering "mediation" and launching disinformation campaigns against Yerevan.

Russia’s attempts to repair its ties with Baku were entirely destroyed when an Azerbaijani airliner crashed in Kazakhstan in December, killing 38 of 67 people aboard. 

As exclusively reported by Euronews, investigations into the incident revealed that the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was shot at by Russian air defence over Russia's Grozny and rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare. 

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently announced that his country is preparing to file lawsuits in international courts against Russia regarding the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash.

Referring to the investigation into the Malaysian airline Boeing case, shot down by Russian militants over the Russia-occupied Donetsk region of Ukraine, Aliyev said Baku is ready to wait as long as it takes.

“We are ready to wait 10 years, but justice must win. And unfortunately, the situation, which is currently in limbo, does not contribute to the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Azerbaijan," he explained.

Last month, Azerbaijan and Russia engaged in another rare escalation. Baku detained the executive director and editor-in-chief of Russia's state-run news agency Sputnik following Moscow’s raids of the Azeri community in Yekaterinburg.

Two people died during the raid by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), and 50 more were detained.

While distancing themselves from Russia did pave a way for Armenia and Azerbaijan to put an end to the decades-long conflict, it has also created a particular vacuum of power in the region, especially on the most critical issues, where Baku and Yerevan might take more time and compromise to agree upon, like the Zangezur Corridor.

And this presents an opportunity for other countries and leaders to not only facilitate the diplomatic compromise, but also to make economic gains.