Ukrainian refugees mark Independence Day with mixed emotions

Ukrainian refugees across Europe marked their country's Independence Day Sunday with mixed emotions amid reports of growing safety concerns in host countries and predictions that fewer displaced citizens will return home than originally expected.

Natalia Panchenko, leader of Euromaidan Warsaw and co-organiser of Independence Day celebrations in the Polish capital, said the holiday carries special significance for Ukrainians fighting for their country's survival.

"We are the generation that is dying for Ukraine to continue to be independent," she told Euronews.

"This is a day we used to celebrate in Ukraine with big festivals, concerts, celebrations in central squares, in all cities," Panchenko explained.

"But for the last 12 years we can no longer rejoice, because for the last 12 years we have been forced to fight with Russia every day for this independence."

UN figures show 5.6 million Ukrainian citizens lived outside Ukraine as of 1 July, while the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported 4.14 million who fled after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in early 2022 had returned by April.

The National Bank of Ukraine now predicts only 100,000 Ukrainians will return by 2027, down from earlier projections of 500,000, while forecasting a new wave of 400,000 emigrants in the next two years.

Poland hosts approximately 2.5-3 million Ukrainian citizens, including roughly 1 million war refugees since February 2022, according to Panchenko. She praised Polish society's response, noting ordinary citizens drove to the borders, opened homes to refugees, and helped enrol Ukrainian children in schools despite some growing fatigue with the prolonged conflict.

"Even now, when some people are already tired of helping Ukraine or simply that the war has lasted so long, despite the fact that economic conditions have worsened in Poland ... there is still a huge number of Polish organisations and ordinary people who collect humanitarian aid, go to the front, and support refugees," Panchenko said.

No return to 'scorched earth'

Recent polling shows anti-Ukrainian sentiment emerging in some Polish political campaigns, with Panchenko reporting that Ukrainian refugees increasingly feel less safe and consider leaving Poland for Western countries rather than returning home.

A spring 2025 survey by the Gremi Personal Analytical Centre found 70% of Ukrainian respondents in Poland potentially considering return, with 17.9% saying they would return immediately once safe and 45.3% remaining hesitant but not ruling out eventual return.

"In terms of forecasts, further migration dynamics will depend primarily on developments in Ukraine: scenarios for the end of the war, economic recovery, the scale of investment and other factors," Oleg Rudenko of the Gremi Personal Analytical Centre told Euronews.

"Although the demographic situation in Ukraine is indeed a cause for concern, the potential for return remains significant, especially in the long term," he explained.

However, many refugees face the reality that their hometowns no longer exist, with cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut reduced to little more than rubble.

According to Panchenko, it is certain that some Ukrainians staying in Poland and Europe will not return to their country even after the war is over.

"It is primarily those people in Ukraine who already physically have nowhere to return to. It is very often the case that people not only do not have their home, but they no longer even have the town they came from. If you take towns like Avdiyivka or Bakhmut, or many others, and look at a map today, there is just a black, scorched earth."

On the other hand, some of the refugees are already returning now, without waiting for a ceasefire or peace talks, so that from September children can start the new school year already in Ukraine.

"About 40% of the refugees who are currently abroad are planning to return to Ukraine. Regardless of the fact that some of them are already well anchored, have friends, they indicate that they do not have a sense of home here and that they will want to return to Ukraine at the first opportunity", Panchenko concluded.