Are European capitals under threat from Russia's kamikaze drones?

For the first time since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland has shot down Russian attack drones over NATO territory overnight on Wednesday.

The Polish government has registered 19 drones, some launched from Belarusian airspace.

No casualties were reported. A house in Wyryki-Wola, only a few kilometres from the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders, was badly damaged by one of the drones.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the alliance was taking the threat "very seriously".

Belarus' defence ministry claimed it too had downed Russian drones over its territory, and that between 11 pm on Tuesday and 4 am on Wednesday it had shared information with Poland.

Tusk, however, condemned the fact that several drones had come directly from Belarusian airspace into Poland.

Could Russian drones reach Warsaw, Brussels or Berlin?

In principle, yes.

Tehran-made Shahed drones, rebranded in Russia as Geran-2, are thought to have a range of up to 2,500 kilometres and a top speed of 185 km/h.

With less than 1,000 kilometres of distance and bordering both Belarus and Ukraine, Warsaw is more vulnerable to possible attacks. A Geran-2 would take around four hours to reach the Polish capital, if not shot down before by its forces.

The distance between Bryansk in Russia and Berlin is around 1,500 kilometres, with a drone flight of roughly eight hours. Any drone attempting to reach Germany would have to cross Polish airspace, though, presumably activating its air defence.

Geographically closer is Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad. At just over 500 kilometres from Berlin, drones could reach the German capital in under three hours – though again, they would have to cross Poland first.

The distance between Brussels and Bryansk is just 2,000 kilometres, which is still within the radius of a Geran-2, though it would take over 10 hours to reach the Belgian capital and the EU's seat of power.

Additionally, the drone would have to cross both the Polish and German airspaces. The timeframe again decreases if the drone starts its route from Kaliningrad, cutting it from around 10 hours to six hours with only 1,200 kilometres.

Even the French capital technically still lies within the distance radius of the Geran-2. To reach Paris, the drone would have to travel for 11 hours undetected via Poland and Germany, traversing over 2,200 kilometres.

On Wednesday morning, the Polish army is reported to have shot down Geran-2s.

Ukrainian monitoring channels tracking Russian strikes on Ukraine published a map showing that these drones had probably been launched from Russia's Kursk and Bryansk regions.

By the time they reached Poland, the drones had already covered almost 1,000 kilometres.

A Geran-2 UAV measures 3.5 metres in length with a wingspan of 2.5 metres, carrying between 50 and 90 kilograms of explosives.

Is NATO prepared?

Russia targets Ukraine almost daily with hundreds of drones, which are intercepted using a range of weapons, including mobile units with automatic weapons.

Last year, "Wild Hornets" drone developers told Euronews they believed NATO countries were relying on air defence systems far too expensive to counter cheap drones, which are usually deployed in large numbers.

In Poland, fighter jets were among the assets scrambled to neutralise the drones.

Former US general Ben Hodges wrote on X that NATO was not ready for such scenarios if it continued deploying costly fighter aircraft against cheap drones.

"NATO and USEUCOM must urgently conduct overdue air and missile defence exercises across the theatre to counter and deter future Russian attacks," he wrote, adding that the Kremlin was currently "testing our response times and capabilities."

Deploying fighter jets against drones is almost always economically irrational: reports suggest Shaheds cost as little as €17,000 to €43.000 each to produce. Because of their cheap cost, low altitude and kamikaze design, they are sometimes dubbed "the poor man's cruise missile".

Poland's Armed Forces Operational Command (DORSZ) raised its readiness level in response to the incident. In addition to ground-based systems, early warning aircraft were put on patrol.

The action involving NATO allies consisted of two F-35s, two F-16s, Mi-17 helicopters, Mi-24s and a Black Hawk sent to the area.

Could Germany shoot down drones over its own territory?

Inspector General of the Bundeswehr Carsten Breuer told German broadcaster ARD earlier this year that downing a drone was "not so straightforward", as seen in a 2023 incident involving a drone over a German army barracks.

In that case, the drone was not a Russian attack drone loaded with explosives, but a reconnaissance UAV – typically used to photograph military or critical infrastructure.

So far, no Russian attack drones have entered German airspace. In Germany, the chain of responsibility is more complex when it comes to reconnaissance or spy drones.

If drones are sighted over Bundeswehr infrastructure, the military must respond with proportionality, ensuring no risk to bystanders – especially if there is uncertainty about whether the drone is armed.

If drones are spotted over critical infrastructure, responsibility falls to the police.

The German Interior Ministry told Euronews in a written statement that federal and state authorities remain "in constant exchange, including with infrastructure operators and other stakeholders."

Established reporting and communication channels are in place, the ministry added, but "cooperation is adjusted as necessary, in line with the evolving threat situation."