Global cancer deaths expected to surge by nearly 75% over next 25 years, study warns

The number of cancer deaths worldwide is expected to rise by nearly 75 per cent in the next 25 years – despite advances in treatments and efforts to curb risk factors, a new analysis has found.

The uptick means 18.6 million people are expected to die of cancer in 2050. New cancer cases are projected to rise by over 60 per cent in that time, reaching 30.5 million, according to the report published in the Lancet medical journal.

Population growth and ageing populations are expected to drive much of these increases, the study said

Currently, more than 40 per cent of cancer deaths are linked to 44 “modifiable” risk factors, such as smoking, unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar, the analysis found.

Modifiable risk factors played a role in 46 per cent of cancer deaths among men in 2023, driven primarily by tobacco, diet, alcohol, occupational risks, and air pollution.

Among women – for whom 36 per cent of cancer deaths were linked to modifiable risks – the key drivers were tobacco, unsafe sex, diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.

“There are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives,” Dr Theo Vos, one of the study’s authors and a researcher at the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

The report covered 47 types of cancer in 204 countries and territories, tracking cases and deaths from 1990 to 2023, and then projecting those figures through 2050.

In 2023, there were 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million deaths worldwide, both major increases since 1990. Death rates, however, have fallen due largely to declines in wealthier countries.

The growing cancer burden is expected to hit lower-income countries hardest in the coming years. They will account for more than half of new cancer cases and two-thirds of deaths between now and 2050, according to the analysis.

Meghnath Dhimal from the Nepal Health Research Council, who also worked on the study, called the growing cancer burden in these countries “an impending disaster”.

The researchers called for improved access to faster, more accurate cancer diagnoses, quality treatment, and supportive care, particularly in lower-income countries.

“There are cost-effective interventions for cancer in countries at all stages of development,” Dhimal said.