Could a Trump presidency be an opportunity for Europe's green funds?

As world leaders meet for the UN's annual climate summit this week, hitting green targets may seem like an increasingly difficult task.

Hosting COP29 this year is Azerbaijan, a country that champions oil and gas. Meanwhile, over in the United States, a climate sceptic has just been re-elected to one of the world's most powerful offices.

Experts agree that a Trump presidency is likely to hinder progress towards sustainability goals.

If we are to keep global temperatures from rising by more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, yearly climate investments in developing countries (excluding China) need to triple to $900bn (€853bn). That's according to think-tank ETC, the Energy Transitions Commission.

Direct government funding plays an important role in achieving this total, as do state-offered green incentives. Under Trump's leadership, the future of the US' Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is nonetheless uncertain.

The raft of tax incentives, credits and loans for green projects could be scrapped to fund Trump's own policies.

Despite the likelihood of a wider climate setback, Trump arguably "gives Europe a huge opportunity", said Craig Douglas, founding partner at World Fund. World Fund is a major European venture capital (VC) firm, investing in entrepreneurs who build climate tech.

"I was worried about US companies just scaling quicker than their European counterparts and then just buying up the best technologies in Europe as a result," Douglas said, speaking to Euronews at Web Summit in Lisbon.

"And if it becomes slightly less attractive to grow fast in the US, we have the chance to be the ones buying companies in the US - not the other way around."

An ecosystem plagued by funding gaps

As of 10 September this year, research from Venture Capital Journal shows that 27 climate VC funds raised $7.1bn (€67bn).

Two major funds are doing the heavy lifting here: Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and Decarbonization Partners, a joint venture between BlackRock and Temasek.

Looking at the biggest funding rounds, America dominates the leaderboard.

European standouts include a Swedish fund from Norrsken VC, as well as Douglas' Berlin-based World Fund.

Despite the lack of large investment vehicles in Europe, the region is nonetheless home to more climate funds than the US - which are smaller in size.

Craig Douglas also noted that Europe has a larger number of climate-focused companies getting venture backing.

"This tells us two things. We have a great ecosystem, but we're not funding that ecosystem properly," he explained.

According to a report from Sifted, 21% of European VC funding goes towards startups working in climate tech - compared with 11% in the US.

Even so, far few companies manage to raise the amount of capital enjoyed by their US counterparts.

John-Pierce Ngombe, responsible for investments at Climate Leaders Fast-Track, told Euronews that this is partly due to the size of the US market, as well as the nation's long history of supporting entrepreneurship.

"The maturity of the market is definitely an aspect that is not playing for us but more for America," he explained to Euronews at Web Summit.

"When you invest in the US, you know there are more opportunities to develop on a larger scale. On the fundraising market, there are also more IPO opportunities and chances to exit."

The political rebranding of climate solutions

The variety of climate funds in Europe is unsurprising given the region's regulatory push.

The European Commission has made climate progress a clear goal, notably passing the Green Deal in 2020. This sets out a roadmap to make the EU climate neutral by 2050.

By setting out a strong agenda, the Commission is sending a signal to investors, encouraging them to funnel funds into climate-focused businesses.

Even so, language around climate investments is likely to shift in the coming years, said Craig Douglas.

"We're going to be talking less about climate and talking more about resilience," he argued.

While some investors shy away from "climate" projects because of political baggage and perceived green premiums, the word "resilience" doesn't evoke the same resistance.

A recent report from data firm PitchBook supports such a trend.

Certain asset managers, it claimed, have started to engage in so-called "greenhushing".

Instead of celebrating their sustainability goals, this means they're downplaying their ESG (environmental, social, governance) credentials for fear of seeming "woke".

Given the recent re-election of former US president Donald Trump, the climate conversation is set to become more politically sensitive.

Trump has branded the climate crisis "an expensive hoax" and labelled green activists "prophets of doom".

He notably pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement in 2020.

The potential unravelling of the IRA

Much of the conversation about rolling back ESG investment has been focused on the US.

That doesn’t, however, mean Europe is immune to anti-climate voices.

A cost of living crisis and high energy prices over recent years have cast the green transition in a particularly unfavourable light.

Many Europeans, struggling with bills, are unwilling to foot the bill for cleaner infrastructure, necessary for long-term climate security.

That being said, the European Green Deal is currently looking sturdier than US climate policy.

"To further defeat inflation, my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam," said president-elect Donald Trump in September.

He added: "And [I will] rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act."

If Trump delivers on his promises to unpick policy, it could be disastrous for global climate progress.

Even so, Europe would have a chance to step up - solidifying its status as a climate leader.

If green investment is disincentivised in the US, this means that start-ups and VC firms in Europe could see a rise in funding.

Added to this, it's possible that fewer climate companies would relocate to the US, and fewer American firms would poach European tech through acquisitions.

Europe's ability to scale will nonetheless depend on politics at home.

With conflicting pressures at play, it's unclear whether states will push ahead with strong climate incentives.