All eyes on Italy as Mercosur deal hangs in the balance

Italy’s silence on the Mercosur trade pact is deafening - and potentially decisive. Rome could become the kingmaker between supporters of the deal and countries seeking to block it.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to fly to Brazil on December 20 to sign off the agreement. France, facing farmer anger over fears of unfair competition from Latin America, opposes the deal and wants to postpone the EU member states vote scheduled this week to allow the signature.

The trade pact with Mercosur countries - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay - aims to create a free-trade area for 700 million people across the Atlantic. Its adoption requires a qualified majority of EU member states. A blocking minority of four countries representing 35% of the EU population could derail ratification.

By the numbers, Italy’s stance is pivotal. France, Hungary, Poland and Austria oppose the deal. Ireland and the Netherlands, despite past opposition, have not officially declared their position. Belgium will abstain.

That leaves Italy in the spotlight. A diplomat told Euronews the country is feeling exposed but that may not be a bad position to be in if it plays its cards rights to get concessions.

Coldiretti remains firmly opposed to the agreement

Rome’s agriculture minister had previously demanded guarantees for farmers.

Since then, the Commission has proposed a safeguard to monitor potential EU market disruptions from Mercosur imports. The measure, backed by member states, will be voted on Tuesday by EU lawmakers at plenary session in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Italy’s largest farmers’ association, Coldiretti, remains firmly opposed.

“It’s going to take too long to activate this safeguard clause if the EU market is hit by a surge of Mercosur’s imports,” a Coldiretti representative told Euronews.

On the other side, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a delicate balancing act between farmers and Confindustria, the industry lobby, while Italy remains the EU’s second-largest exporter to Mercosur countries.

This was also made clear by Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida a few days ago in Brussels. "Many industrial sectors and parts of the agricultural sector, such as the wine and cheese producers, would have a clear and tangible benefit [from the deal]. Others could be penalized,”he said.

This is why Italy has not taken a clear stance up to now. "Since 2024, we tried to protect everybody”, Lollobrigida argued, "while remaining ambiguous on the country's position".

Supporters of the deal are wooing Meloni, seeing her as the path to get the agreement done and open new markets amid global trade obstacles, including nationalist policies in the US and China.

“As long as the Commission president is preparing to go to Brazil to the Mercosur summit, we need to do what’s necessary for that to happen,” an EU senior diplomat from a pro-deal country said.

Yet uncertainty lingers. No one wants to schedule a vote that might fail, and Italy’s prolonged silence is rattling backers, sources told Euronews.

One diplomat familiar with the matter speaking to Euronews conceded “it’s hard, looks difficult”.