Trump makes imprecise claims about NATO allies’ defence spending in Nawrocki meeting

US President Donald Trump has claimed that Poland was one of just two countries previously meeting NATO’s defence spending target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), which was recently raised to 5% of GDP by 2035 on Trump’s demand.

“Poland was one of two nations that paid more than they were supposed to with NATO,” the US President said.

“I don’t know if anyone knows that, but there were two nations, and Poland paid more than they were supposed to,” he added.

The comments came during a meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who secured a narrow victory in May’s Polish presidential elections after receiving Trump’s endorsement.

But a closer look at NATO’s historical data on allies' spending commitments shows that Trump’s claims are inaccurate.

As many as ten NATO allies, including the US, were meeting the target in 2023, raising to 18 countries in 2024.

If we go back almost a decade to 2014, when NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target was agreed during the Wales Summit, three countries – Greece, the United Kingdom and the United States itself – were already reaching the threshold.

Other allied countries were slow to meet the commitment. 

Poland was the only country to increase its defence spending beyond 2% the following year, in 2015, but its spending fell back below the benchmark between 2016 and 2019, according to NATO data consulted by EuroVeirfy.

Poland has been continuously hitting the target since 2020, and has significantly ramped up its spending following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Latvia and Estonia have also been hitting the 2% target consistently since 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to NATO’s data.

It means that there has been no year in which Poland was among just two allied countries other than the US hitting the 2% target.

If we are to understand that Trump was referring to current EU member states only, therefore excluding the UK, his claim does tread closer to reality.

Yet, only in 2105 was Poland among two current EU member states, along with Greece, reaching the target.

The figures provided by NATO diverge from other sources due to the way both defence expenditure and GDP forecasts are calculated.

Data provided by the World Bank suggest that in 2015, Poland was among three EU member states — along with Greece and Estonia — to surpass the 2% target, further contradicting Trump's claims.

In June this year, NATO allies commited to an increased defence expenditure target of 5% of GDP during the Hague Summit, following months of mounting pressure from the Trump administration.

They are expected to reach that target by 2035.

All NATO European allies and Canada are forecast to reach the 2% of GDP target for the first time this year, according to figures recently released by the military alliance. It comes over a decade since the target was first set.

This should bring defence spending by allies from Europe and Canada to a joint 2.27% of GDP, raising to 2.76% of GDP when counting the US's participation.

Poland is forecast to spend almost 4.5% of its GDP on defence this year, more than any other NATO ally, making it the biggest current contributor in terms of proportion of GDP.