To keep US support on Ukraine under Trump, EU invokes China

In a bid to keep US support for Ukraine high under the incoming Trump administration, Brussels is now increasingly linking the fight against China’s assertiveness, a key priority for Washington, to efforts to bolster the European war-torn nation.

“If the US is worried about China or other actors then they should also be worried about how we respond to Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Kaja Kallas, the Commissioner-designate for foreign affairs and security, told MEPs on Tuesday.

Beijing is helping Russia keep its war machine going, alongside Iran and North Korea, and should therefore made to “feel a higher cost” for its assistance to Moscow, she added during her confirmation hearing in the European Parliament in Brussels.

This echoed comments made by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week, just one day after Donald Trump secured a second term in the White House.

Asked following a meeting of EU leaders in Budapest if the bloc is prepared to boost support for Kyiv should Trump make good on his threat to drastically cut the US’ contributions, von der Leyen said that what “is more important to discuss with our American friends also (is) the fact that Russia is not only a threat to Europe, but a threat to the global security as a whole”.

“We see that technology from China and Iran is used by Russia on the battlefield. This shows that the security of the Indo-Pacific and Europe are interconnected and so are the European and the United States’ interests in this cause.”

“I think this is an argument where we also have to be very clear with our American friends,” she added. 

US shifts eastwards

Trump also said during the campaign that he would seek to end the war in Ukraine within days of taking office on 20 January, sparking fears that he could seek to impose painful territorial concessions on Kyiv. 

Another worry is that the $20 billion the US is meant to provide as part of a $50 billion (€45 billion) loan to Ukraine from G7 allies could be scrapped by Trump if not approved before his inauguration. Half of the US’ share is earmarked for military assistance and needs the approval of Congress.

The incoming US president is meanwhile expected to focus heavily on China, just as he did during his first term when he imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese products. 

The US, under Joe Biden, continued to recalibrate its foreign policy eastwards, unveiling an Indo-Pacific Strategy and signing bilateral and multilateral partnerships, including military deals, with countries in the region.

Under Washington’s impulsion, the NATO military alliance also shifted some of its attention to the Indo-Pacific with a mention of the region first making its way into a communiqué issued after a summit of leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania, in 2023. 

Events in the Indo-Pacific, the NATO communiqué stated, “can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security”, a phrase recycled in the document signed by leaders following the summit this year in Washington.

'Transactional approach' to transatlantic unity

For Dr. Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank, "the belief that broadening the agenda will serve to highlight shared interests and slow the drift toward unilateralism and economic nationalism" could "become a hallmark of the broader European approach to the new Trump administration".

"On both sides of the Atlantic, we are likely to see more explicit linkages, on security but also on trade and regulatory issues," he added in an email to Euronews.

Washington may insist, for instance, that home-grown companies secure more predictable participation in European security. The EU may also decide to align its China policy more closely with the US in order to ward off tariffs and other policies at odds with European interests.

"It is evidence of an increasingly transactional approach to transatlantic relations," Dr. Lesser added.

Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, is expected to be approved by MEPs in the coming days and take her post as the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs in December.