Putin may attack a NATO country from Belarus as early as next year, Zelenskyy says

Russia is preparing for a major military escalation, potentially targeting NATO countries as early as next year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, he specifically pointed at Belarus as a launchpad for a possible future attack. Zelenskyy said Kyiv "clearly understands what the Russians are going to do with Belarus."

“Russia is preparing 15 divisions. Around 100-150,000 troops are being trained to aggravate the situation on the Belarus direction,” Zelenskyy said. “I am not sure if they will attack Ukraine, but they will attack. Maybe Ukraine, maybe Poland, maybe the Baltic countries.”

Ukraine’s president said that the EU politicians remain "very concerned" about the US reaction and possible support in case of an attack. 

“Everyone in Europe is concerned. Europeans are very concerned. They are afraid they will be left without the US support."

"What we already see is that Europe will strengthen more this unity around Ukraine, because this is their protection. They understand more and more that they are next. Not in a distant future, but next," Zelensky pointed out.

'Military drills' pretense

Earlier this week, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service issued a similar warning, saying that Russia may find the opportunity to launch a large-scale war on Europe within five years if Moscow "perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided".

In early 2022, Russia used Belarus as a launchpad for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This was preceded by Minsk allowing Russian armed forces to stage weeks-long "military drills," which were a facade for the planned invasion.

On 24 February, Russian troops crossed into Ukraine from Belarus, soon occupying the northern parts of Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. Russian forces have entered Kyiv's satellite cities of Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel from Belarus, occupying the area until late March.

According to NATO estimates, the attack force that entered Ukraine from Belarus had up to 30,000 Russian troops.

Last December, Putin’s ally Alexander Lukashenko said his country was hosting dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and would prepare facilities for the planned deployment of Moscow's newest hypersonic ballistic missile.

His remarks came after he and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty giving security guarantees to Belarus, Moscow's closest ally, including the possible use of nuclear weapons to help repel any aggression.

The pact followed Moscow's revision of its nuclear doctrine, which for the first time placed Belarus under the Russian atomic umbrella amid the tensions with the West over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.