Oscars 2025 predictions: Who will, could and should win?

Predicting this year’s Academy Awards is not easy.

Unlike previous years – especially 2024’s anticipated sweep for Oppenheimer - there are no foregone conclusions when it comes to the 97th edition of the Golden Baldies.

Frontrunners have oscillated; social media scandals and political turbulence have swayed things; and while it’s a strong year in terms of nominees, there’s no doubt this awards season has been one of the most unpredictable in years. 

Exciting though, as we’d rather see several major Oscar categories remain wide open with just hours to go before the ceremony than to sit back and tick off a series of unsurprising ballot picks.  

So, with this in mind, it’s finally time to dust off the old crystal ball and give you our predictions. We’re doing it in terms of Will Wins (our predicted champions), Could Wins (the potential ‘surprise’ winners) and Should Wins (the ones we’d ideally like to see emerge victorious). 

Without further ado, here are our 2025 Oscar predictions in all categories:

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: 

• Anora  
• The Brutalist  
• A Complete Unknown  
• Conclave  
• Dune: Part Two  
• Emilia Pérez  
• I’m Still Here  
• Nickel Boys  
• The Substance  
• Wicked

This is the nail-biter of the evening – as it should be. Unlike last year, when calling it for Oppenheimer was basically a sure thing, the clear frontrunner for Best Picture has kept on shifting – to the extent it could go a number of ways in what has become the most unpredictable year in recent memory.  

Early on in awards season, it felt like a two-way race between Jacques Audiard’s cartel-transgender musical Emilia Pérez and Brady Corbet’s bladder-punishing, American Dream-skewering The Brutalist. Both tied at the Golden Globes and Emilia Pérez seemed to be a tentative favourite – not least because it scored 13 Oscar nominations and the film’s win would have been an almighty ‘fuck you’ to Donald Trump considering its themes.  

Then came the tweet scandal that effectively torpedoed Emilia Pérez’s chances and made it an open race for the top gong. The Brutalist remains a towering epic that feels tailor-made for Oscar glory, but a renewed surge of momentum has gone in papal thriller Conclave’s way. 

So, who will emerge victorious? We’re ruling out the crowdpleasing but middling Wicked, the decent Dune: Part Two and Nickle Boys, which is one of the strongest films to be nominated. It just hasn’t had any luck securing precursor awards in the lead up to the final night of awards season. 

I’m Still Here could be an outsider, but it has more going for it when it comes to Best International Feature. As for The Substance, one of our favourite films in the shortlist, we doubt Academy voters have the guts to give Best Picture to such a deliriously weird film. Plus, the Academy doesn’t tend to favour the horror genre.  

Which leaves Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown (the safe choice); Conclave (the mainstream pick); The Brutalist (whose chances don’t seem to have been too negatively impacted by overblown controversy surrounding the use of AI); and Anora.  

As much as the ambition and scope of The Brutalist would make it a worthy winner, and the compelling Conclave represents the consensus choice, we’re calling it for Anora.

Sean Baker’s Pretty Woman update about a feisty sex worker fighting back against Russian oligarchs recently won the Critics Choice, PGA and DGA awards, and these are reliable indicators that it will win the top prize. Moreover, the rags-to-riches-to-rags story thrillingly mixes screwball comedy, rollercoaster thrills and unexpected poignancy. It’s the film most voters can get behind in this very unpredictable race.  

Who Will Win: Anora 

Who Could Win: Conclave 

Who Should Win: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: 

• Sean Baker - Anora  
• Brady Corbet - The Brutalist  
• James Mangold - A Complete Unknown  
• Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez  
• Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

What we wouldn’t give for this award to go to Coralie Fargeat... However, it looks like it’s a two-way race between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker for Best Director – especially now that Emilia Pérez has fallen out of favour. Had it not, Jacques Audiard could have represented France’s best shot after Fargeat of bringing home the Golden Baldie. As it stands, Corbet feels like he had more heavy lifting with the hefty The Brutalist and his craftsmanship is impressive. However, this feels like Baker’s award to lose, especially because the director has proven over the years to be one of the most thrilling filmmakers around.  

Whoever wins it, it is worth mentioning that for the first time since 1997, all five filmmakers are first-time nominees for Best Director. That's nice.

Incidentally, check out our interview with Coralie Fargeat.

Who Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora 

Who Could Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist 

Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: 

• Adrien Brody - The Brutalist  
• Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown  
• Colman Domingo - Sing Sing  
• Ralph Fiennes - Conclave  
• Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

This category feels like a two-person race between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet.  

Brody won at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA; Chalamet had a surprise win at the SAG awards and the momentum seems to be in his favour. It’s maybe a bit late in the day, but it’s clear that A Complete Unknown is a more Academy-friendly movie compared to The Brutalist.

And Oscar voters love a good biopic. Gary Oldman playing Churchill, Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury, Renee Zellweger’s Judy Garland, Cillian Murphy’s Oppenheimer...  

Not that Timmy didn’t put in the work, having reportedly spent five years mastering the guitar and sounding like Bob Dylan. He’s the best part of A Complete Unknown, an otherwise middling biopic-by-numbers.

While Brody is more deserving for his role as Holocaust survivor László Tóth and should take home his second Oscar (having previously won Best Actor for The Pianist), it feels like Chalamet could be the surprise winner on Sunday. Plus, Brody became the youngest winner in the category at age 29 for The Pianist. If Timmy wins, he’ll become the youngest by a few months, as he turns 30 in December. 

Whatever happens, it’s a damn shame that Daniel Craig’s superb work in Queer was not recompensed with a nomination.  

Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown 

Who Could Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist 

Who Should Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: 

• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked  
• Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez  
• Mikey Madison - Anora  
• Demi Moore - The Substance  
• Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

This is an easier category to call. Even if it’s a three-way battle between Demi Moore, Mikey Madison and Fernanda Torres, there’s little doubt that Demi Moore will win for her work in The Substance. 

The Academy aren’t the greatest fans of horror or horror-adjacent films, but the story of Moore's Elizabeth Sparkle and her desperate attempts to stay relevant in a cruel Hollywood industry is ferocious and brave. The Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and SAGs agree, as Moore swept all three.  

Plus, Hollywood loves a good comeback narrative, and this career-rejuvenating role represents due recognition for an actress with 40 years in the industry. 

So, while it’s a shame that Karla Sofía Gascón won’t be making history as the first openly transgender winner in this category, and as deserving as Madison and Torres are, it’ll be Moore’s night.   

Who Will Win: Demi Moore - The Substance 

Who Could Win: Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here 

Who Should Win: Demi Moore - The Substance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: 

• Yura Borisov - Anora  
• Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain  
• Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown  
• Guy Pearce - The Brutalist  
• Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

This one’s an open and shut case. It’s Kieran Culkin. It’s been Kieran Culkin all season long. His role as the carefree but damaged Benji in A Real Pain is both funny and moving, and it has bagged him all the precursor awards.  

It’s a shame that Guy Pierce won’t win this one, as The Brutalist rests on the shoulders of both Adrien Brody and Pierce, the antagonist of the piece. However, there are no indications to suggest that Culkin will be pipped to the post on this one.  

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain 

Who Could Win: Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 

Who Should Win: Guy Pearce - The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: 

• Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown  
• Ariana Grande - Wicked  
• Felicity Jones - The Brutalist  
• Isabella Rossellini - Conclave  
• Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez

Despite the Emilia Pérez implosion, Zoe Saldaña feels like a lock for Best Supporting Actress. She has swept the precursors for her role as a singing, dancing lawyer who helps a Mexican cartel boss (Karla Sofía Gascón) transition to being a woman and disappear. No just / unjust controversy can drag down Saldaña, who recently won the BAFTA and SAG awards for her performance.  

Her main competition is Conclave’s Isabella Rossellini, but considering how brief (but impactful) her eight-minute performance is, Saldaña feels like the more deserving winner.  

Shout out to Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, whose heartbreaking turn in Nickel Boys really deserved a nomination.  

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez 

Who Could Win: Isabella Rossellini - Conclave 

Who Should Win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: 

• Anora (Sean Baker) 
• The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold) 
• A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) 
• September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David) 
• The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

This is another tough one to call. 

Anora is a blast and deserves it. A Real Pain was witty and moving and could be a surprise winner. And if we’re thinking with our hearts, Best Original Screenplay should go to The Substance. It’s fun, engaged, provocative and accomplishes everything it sets out to do – meaning that if there’s any justice, Coralie Fargeat will go home her trophy. 

However, the smart money is on Anora.  

Who Will Win: Anora 

Who Could Win: The Substance 

Who Should Win: The Substance

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: 

• A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks) 
• Conclave (Peter Straughan) 
• Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi) 
• Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes) 
• Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

It’s Conclave for the win. Peter Straughan expertly adapted Robert Harris’s 2016 bestseller by focusing on the character of Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes), the man who supervises the election of a new pope – as well as adding a few explosions to the mix. He transformed the page-turner and ensured the outstanding ensemble cast all got a chance to shine. No mean feat.  

We’d love for Nickel Boys, adapted from the 2019 novel by Colson Whitehead, to win it – and there’s still a slim chance that Emilia Pérez could nab this one – but unless something goes very wrong, it’s a lock for Conclave.

Who Will Win: Conclave 

Who Could Win: Nickel Boys 

Who Should Win: Conclave 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees: 

• I’m Still Here (Brazil)  
• The Girl With The Needle (Denmark)  
• Emilia Pérez (France)  
• The Seed Of The Sacred Fig (Germany)  
• Flow (Latvia)

With 13 Oscar nominations, Emilia Pérez will probably leave the Oscar ceremony with only three trophies: Best Song, Best Supporting Actress and Best International Film. 

The film has been impacted by scandals but this prize will be its consolation before everyone moves on. Granted, Walter Salles’ true story and moving cri du coeur about oppression in ’70s Brazil, I’m Still Here, could win. If it does, the fall from grace of Jacques Audiard’s film will be truly complete.  

Spare a thought for the most deserving winner though: Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig. It’s our favourite film of 2024 and deserved so much more than to leave the Oscars empty-handed. 

Check out our interview with Mohammad Rasoulof.

Who Will Win: Emilia Pérez 

Who Could Win: I’m Still Here 

Who Should Win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Nominees: 

• Black Box Diaries  
• No Other Land  
• Porcelain War  
• Soundtrack To A Coup D’Etat  
• Sugarcane

There’s no obvious frontrunner in this strong category and every title feels deserving. The consensus pick is Porcelain War, which shows how three artists continue to create porcelain figurines in the midst of the war in Ukraine. There’s also a case to be made for No Other Land to win, as this deeply compassionate and powerful doc shows the collaboration between Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers to document the systematic Israeli destruction of Palestinian homes in the West Bank. 

While these two feel like frontrunners, rush to see Sugarcane if you haven’t already. Made by indigenous filmmaker Julian Brave NoiseCat and investigative journalist Emily Kassie, the film is an investigation into the Catholic-run state schools enforced upon indigenous children in Canada. It’s visually impressive and will leave you shaken to the core. NoiseCat is the first North American indigenous filmmaker to ever receive a nomination in the show’s 97-year history, and a win for the film would have us cheering.  

Who Will Win: Porcelain War  

Who Could Win: No Other Land 

Who Should Win: Sugarcane

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees:  

• Flow  
• Inside Out 2  
• Memoir Of A Snail  
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl  
• The Wild Robot

Another neck-and-neck race for you... 

The Wild Robot is a heart-tugging good time, following robot Roz (Lupita Nyong’o) on a remote island, learning to cohabit with animals and adopting an orphan gosling. It won Critics Choice and while it’s mildly overpraised, it feels like the film most voters will get behind.  

Then there’s Flow, one of our favourite films of last year. Latvia’s low-budget silent entry from Gints Zilbalodis is a striking tale of a black cat trying to find refuge amidst a devastating flood that sinks its homeland, teaming up with various other animals along the way. It’s catnip for the soul - a simple story told beautifully, and it deserves to win. 

Who Will Win: The Wild Robot 

Who Could Win: Flow 

Who Should Win: Flow

As for the rest, if you’ve made it this far in the article, we’re opting for straightforward two-liners. For more of our thoughts on each category, join us on Monday morning for our coverage of the ceremony. 

Best Cinematography 

• Will Win: The Brutalist (Lol Crawley) 

• Should Win: Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

 

Best Film Editing 

• Will Win: Conclave (Nick Emerson) 

• Should Win: Anora (Sean Baker)

 

Best Production Design 

• Will Win: Wicked (Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales) 

• Should Win: The Brutalist (Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia)

 

Best Visual Effects 

• Will Win: Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer) 

• Should Win: Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)

 

Best Sound 

• Will Win: Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill) 

• Should Win: Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)

 

Best Original Score 

• Will Win: The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg) 

• Should Win: Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)

 

Best Original Song 

• Will Win: ‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Clément Ducol and Camille) or ‘Mi Camino’ from Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille) 

• Should Win: ‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Clément Ducol and Camille)

 

Best Costume Design 

• Will Win: Wicked (Paul Tazewell) 

• Should Win: Conclave (Lisy Christl)

 

Best Make-up & Hairstyling 

• Will Win: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli) 

• Should Win: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)

 

Best Animated Short 

• Will Win: Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper) 

• Should Win: Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)

 

Best Live Action Short 

• Will Win: Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai) 

• Should Win: I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)

 

Best Documentary Short 

• Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp) 

• Should Win: I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)

The 97th Oscars take place on Sunday 2 March (very early on Monday morning for Europe). Stay tuned to Euronews Culture for the full coverage of the ceremony.