From Kinshasa to Bujumbura: How the M23 crisis risks engulfing the region

As fighting continues in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), questions are mounting over Kinshasa’s real capacity to put pressure on neighboring Rwanda, accused by Congolese authorities of backing the M23 rebellion.

According to Congolese political scientist Christian Moleka, the DRC’s diplomatic and military room for manoeuvre has narrowed significantly.

Moleka argues that Kinshasa had banked heavily on the Washington economic agreement to turn the United States into a key pressure player on Rwanda.

“Kinshasa can use the Washington agreement to give Washington a role as a pressure lever, and I believe the government expected a lot from the American mediator, hoping that the economic interests tied to the agreement would push Washington to put pressure on Kigali,” he explained.

However, those expectations have not fully materialized. Despite strong rhetoric and diplomatic moves, U.S. pressure on Kigali has yet to produce decisive changes on the ground.

“Today, Kinshasa has less room for manoeuvre over the M23,” Moleka noted.

As Kinshasa struggles to find effective levers, whether diplomatic, political, or military, the stakes now extend far beyond eastern Congo.

The balance between DR Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi is increasingly fragile, and missteps by any actor could tip the region into a broader war. M23 said it took control of Uvira last week, following a rapid offensive launched at the start of the month.

Along with the more than 400 people killed, about 200,000 have been displaced, regional officials say. Even though there are no longer clashes between the Congolese army and the M23 rebels in Uvira, residents say the humanitarian situation remains worrying.

M23 fighters said they were trying to restore security by collecting weapons abandoned by the Congolese army as it fled.