Central African Republic elections set for Dec 28 amid Russia ties

The Central African Republic will hold presidential and legislative elections on December 28, as concerns about armed groups have led to a growing reliance on Russia for security.

President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has led the country since 2016 and is considered the favorite to win a third term after a 2023 constitutional referendum removed term limits. His decision to run again earlier this year sparked street protests that drew thousands of people.

Touadéra is one of Russia 's closest allies in Africa, but tensions have emerged this year over Moscow's demand to replace the Wagner private mercenary group with the Russian military unit Africa Corps .

Meanwhile, human rights organizations have expressed concerns about repression in the lead-up to the first round of voting, while a major opposition group has vowed to boycott it.

Conflict with armed groups

This landlocked country of approximately 5.5 million inhabitants has long been plagued by clashes between pro-government forces and armed groups .

In 2013, predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president to resign. A peace agreement was signed in 2019, but six of the 14 armed groups involved subsequently withdrew.

According to Human Rights Watch , the Central African government has signed peace agreements with armed groups in recent months, creating conditions of stability unseen for years.

"Thanks to the peace agreements, UN peacekeeping efforts and security support from Wagner and Rwanda, the country is in a safer situation than during the last election cycle in 2020 ," said Lewis Mudge, Central Africa director for the NGO.

The UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA , has been present since 2014. It currently has around 14,000 military personnel and 3,000 police officers, who will help secure the polling stations.

Last month, the UN Security Council extended the force's mandate for another year, while indicating that its presence would be reduced due to budgetary constraints. MINUSCA spokeswoman Florence Marchal told the Associated Press that it was not yet clear how many peacekeepers would leave the country before the election, but that the reduction would not compromise security.

Tensions with Russia

The Central African Republic was one of the first countries where Wagner established operations, promising to fight rebel groups and restore peace. But disagreements over the nature of the Russian military presence have strained relations with Moscow.

In August, local government and military officials told the AP that Russia had asked the country to replace Wagner with Africa Corps and was demanding payment for any additional security services.

The government was reluctant to accept these demands, considering Wagner more efficient and preferring to pay for services in minerals rather than cash, local officials explained earlier this year on condition of anonymity.

Wagner protects Touadéra and his government and helped him win the constitutional referendum that removed presidential term limits. In exchange, the group gained access to the country's rich mineral resources, including gold.

Rwanda is also influential

Rwanda, a regional power, also maintains a significant military presence. In addition to its participation in the UN mission, 1,000 members of its special forces were deployed following a rebel attack on the capital, Bangui, in 2021.

This presence is part of Rwanda 's "military diplomacy" , according to Charles Bouëssel, Central Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group .

In 2021, the two countries signed agreements giving densely populated Rwanda access to agricultural land and mining concessions in exchange for military support against armed groups.

"For Rwanda, the Central African Republic is seen as a potential fallback solution for its mining interests in the eastern part of neighboring Congo ," said Bouëssel.

The Congo , the United States , and UN experts accuse Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, which recently launched a new deadly offensive in eastern Congo. Rwanda denies these accusations.

Concerns about electoral irregularities

Last month, Human Rights Watch warned that the credibility of the election was threatened, citing incomplete voter lists and insufficiently trained polling station staff, particularly outside Bangui.

The NGO also documented what it describes as a set of administrative tactics that disproportionately hampered opposition candidates.

Two of the country's best-known political figures, former Prime Ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra , were prevented from running until November 14, when the Constitutional Council decided to allow them to compete in the presidential election.

The main opposition coalition, the Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution , announced in October that it would boycott the election, denouncing an unequal political environment. Neither Dologuélé nor Dondra are part of it.

According to analysts, this boycott, as well as the short campaign period left to Dologuélé and Dondra, should pave the way for a victory for Touadéra and a Parliament dominated by the ruling party.