‘Redefining life on Earth’: Three-quarters of the world’s land is permanently drying up

More than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades,  according to a landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). 

The UNCCD says that 77.6 per cent of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period. At the same time, drylands expanded to an area nearly a third larger than India and now cover more than 40 per cent of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).

The UNCCD’s report was released at a UN summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on combating desertification - when once-fertile lands become deserts thanks to hotter temperatures from human-caused climate change, lack of water and deforestation. 

What happens when land on Earth dries up?

“The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were,” warns Ibrahim Thiaw, chief of the UNCCD, which is facilitating the Riyadh talks. “This change is redefining life on Earth.”

This year was the hottest on record and if global warming trends continue, nearly five billion people - including in most of Europe, parts of the western US, Brazil, eastern Asia and central Africa - will be affected by the drying by the end of the century, the UNCCD report explains.

UNCCD’s chief scientist Barron Orr warns drier land could lead to “potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points,” where humans are no longer able to reverse damaging effects of climate change.

What’s at risk when the Earth becomes arid?

Sergio Vicente-Serrano, one of the report’s lead authors, explains that as the atmosphere heats up from the effects of burning coal, oil and gas, it leads to more evaporation on the ground. That makes water less available for humans, plants and animals, making it harder to survive.

Farming is particularly at risk, with drier land being less productive and hurting both yields and the availability of food for livestock, leading to food insecurity for communities worldwide.

Aridity also leads to more migration, because erratic rainfall, degrading land and frequent water shortages make it harder for regions or nations to develop economically, the UNCCD report says. 

The trend is especially noticeable in some of the world’s driest areas, such as southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.

What’s happening at the Riyadh summit to address desertification?

At COP16, negotiators in Riyadh are mainly discussing how best the world can respond to more frequent and damaging droughts.

Jes Weigelt, of European climate think-tank TMG, says drought is a sticking point because countries can’t agree on whether rich nations should be forking out funds for drought responses around the world.

Any money pledged would go toward better forecasting and monitoring systems as well as creating reservoirs and other structures that can provide access to water even during prolonged dry spells.

“The big contentious issue is do we do this [drought response] through a binding UN-level protocol or are there other options that we should explore?” Weigelt says. A binding protocol would mean that, among other obligations, developed countries might be asked to provide funding.

Funds to tackle increasing drought and desertification fall short

UNCCD chief Thiaw says that summit host country Saudi Arabia pledging $2.15 billion (€2.4 billion) from various countries and international banks for drought resilience has set the right tone for the talks. 

And the Arab Coordination Group - 10 development banks based in the Middle East - committed $10 billion (€9.49 billion) by 2030 to address degrading land, desertification and drought.

The funds are expected to support 80 of the most vulnerable countries to prepare for worsening drought conditions. But the UN estimates that between 2007 and 2017, droughts cost $125 billion (€118.7 billion) worldwide.

“As hosts, our primary objective is to help facilitate the critical discussions taking place,” says Osama Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s deputy environment minister and an advisor to the talks’ presidency. “These crises know no borders.”

Are there any solutions to the drying up of Earth?

While drought can be damaging, Thiaw writes in the UNCCD report, recovery is possible. But he calls the drying of land “an unrelenting menace that requires lasting adaptation measures”.

Longer-lasting solutions - such as the curbing of climate change - are not much of a talking point at the Riyadh summit. Host Saudi Arabia has long been criticised for stalling progress on curbing emissions from fossil fuels at other negotiations, such as COP29. The country is financially reliant on fossil fuels and is one of the petrostates expected to lose half its income in a phase out.

The UNCCD report recommends that countries improve their land use practices and are more efficient at using water. That includes rolling out measures such as growing crops that need less water and more efficient irrigation methods, like drip irrigation, on a much larger scale.

It also suggests better monitoring so that communities can plan ahead, and large-scale reforestation projects to protect the earth and its moisture.

Andrea Toreti, one of the report’s lead authors, says that just like tackling climate change or biodiversity loss, addressing the issue requires countries to work better together with “coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment”.