French PM Bayrou's marathon talks unlikely to avert no-confidence vote

French Prime Minister François Bayrou is spending this Tuesday meeting with leaders of several political parties in a last-ditch effort to avoid a no-confidence vote that threatens to topple his government next Monday.

After receiving the Communist Party on Monday, Bayrou sat down on Tuesday with representatives of centre-left Place Publique, the far-right National Rally (RN), the conservative Republicans (LR), the presidential bloc Renaissance and MoDem parties, and Horizons. More meetings with other groups are scheduled over the coming days.

But despite this marathon of consultations, the prospects of shifting the political balance remain slim. Most opposition parties from the far left to the far right have already announced that they will vote against the government on 8 September.

Even within Bayrou’s own governing bloc, cracks are becoming increasingly visible.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has urged Republicans to rally behind the PM and not “join the arsonists” seeking to bring him down.

Yet several conservative MPs have already said they will vote against him, and party figures like Laurent Wauquiez are demanding significant revisions to the controversial 2026 budget plan before offering any support.

On the left, the Greens and hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) have refused even to attend the talks, dismissing them as pointless. The Socialists, who will meet Bayrou on Thursday, have already made their position clear.

“On 8 September, he will have to go,” party leader Olivier Faure said bluntly on French national television, adding that the only words he now expects from Bayrou are “goodbye.”

Independent MPs from the LIOT group were also seen as a potential lifeline. But in a press release, they announced that “a clear majority of the group will not vote confidence.” Their leaders still plan to meet Bayrou on Wednesday.

After the meeting on Tuesday, the RN representatives indicated the time was up for Bayrou and his government.

"The miracle did not happen. This meeting won't change the National Rally’s position," party leader Jordan Bardella said.

Standing next to Bardella, Marine Le Pen was more direct, saying Bayrou has “chosen to press the button on the ejection seat” on his government, and calling for “ultra-fast dissolution” of parliament and snap elections.

As the hours go by, one thing becomes clear: despite Bayrou’s efforts, no genuine political breakthrough is emerging.

Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, François Bayrou appears destined to suffer a stinging defeat on 8 September, marking the beginning of a new phase of political uncertainty for France.