Could Palestine recognition wave spark momentum for two-state solution?

The recognition of Palestinian statehood by some Western countries may potentially create a momentum to advance the endorsement of a two-state solution, world leaders participating in a conference on the matter at the UN headquarters suggested.

French President Emmanuel Macron, co-chairing the conference, announced his country's recognition of Palestine on Monday, drawing long applause from the overlooking crowd at the UN General Assembly (UNGA).

“The time has come. That is why, faithful to my country's historic commitment in the Middle East, for peace between the Israeli people and the Palestinian people, I declare that France today recognises the State of Palestine," said the French leader.

Macron also noted that the decision comes amid the worsening humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Gaza Strip, as the Israeli onslaught on the Palestinian territory nears the two-year mark, stressing that urgent action is now needed to bring this chapter of suffering, on both sides, to a close.

“We are here because the time has come. The time has come to free the 48 hostages held by Hamas. The time has come to stop the war, the bombings in Gaza, the massacres, and the fleeing population,” he added.

“The time has come because the urgency is everywhere. The time for peace has come because we are moments away from being unable to grasp it. That is why we are here today. Some will say too late, others will say too soon. One thing is certain: we cannot wait any longer.”

The French leader expressed words of friendship towards Israel during his address, which has always opposed the recognition of Palestine as a sovereign and independent state and the two-state solution as a viable end to a decades-old conflict.

Macron's comments were however not warmly received, as Israel criticised his move, calling it shameful and disappointing.

"Good afternoon. In a few minutes, we will see, theatre. When the (French) president, (Emmanuel) Macron and his colleagues will gather for the so-called conference. This is a theatre because we all know that it detached from reality," said Danny Danon, Israeli Ambassador to the UN.

"When Hamas is praising this conference and calling it the fruits of October 7th, we know it's a problem. If a terrorist organisation is supporting what's happening here, it's shameful," he continued.

"To President Macron and other leaders. Well, I would say we are disappointed. On 8 October, you stood with Israel. You spoke about the hostages. Today, you are moving on. You trying to leave the hostages behind. We will not forget them."

France now joins the UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal, who all made their recognitions of Palestine official just one day prior, announcing the decisions in separate statements.

Their initiatives also drew heavy criticism from Israeli lawmakers, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slamming the move as "huge prize" for terrorism, rewarding Hamas for their deadly incursion into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,129 people and claimed 251 hostages.

“I have a clear message to those leaders who recognise a Palestinian state after the terrible massacre of 7 October: You are giving a huge prize to terrorism. And I have another message for you: It will not happen. There will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan,” said Netanyahu.

In a more threatening tone, the Israeli premier also vowed to respond to those announcements following the conclusion of his trip to the United States to address the UNGA and meet with US President Donald Trump.

“The response to the latest attempt to impose a terrorist state on us in the heart of our country will be given after my return from the United States. Stand by."

UN Secretary-General António Guterres rejected Netanyahu's remarks, saying "statehood for Palestinians is a right, not a reward".

More recognitions on the horizon

Malta, Belgium, Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino are also among the European countries to announce their recognition of Palestinian statehood during the UN General Assembly High-level week, which opens on Tuesday.

These moves could bring the total number of UN members recognising Palestine to nearly 160, marking one of the largest waves of recognition in years and potentially strengthening momentum for the two-state solution.

European Council President António Costa, speaking on Monday, asserted that the 27-member bloc stands behind peace in the region, and thanked France for its initiative in advancing that premise.

"I would like to thank the initiative of France and Saudi Arabia – the initiative being to gather us at the critical juncture for peace in the Middle East. The region has known far too many wars, far too much violence and terrorism; too many deaths," said Costa.

"Today in Gaza, we are facing a humanitarian catastrophe. We see families broken; famine used as a weapon of war. This disaster must end,” he added.

President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas took the stage via video link on Monday, after the US moved to deny issuing Palestinian representatives visas to enter the country to participate in the event.

Addressing the conference, Abbas expressed his gratitude for the spark of recognition and urged other countries still on the fence on the matter to follow suit.

"We appreciate the positions of the countries that have recognised the State of Palestine, and we call on those who have not yet recognised it to do so."

Abbas, in an attempt to alleviate Western concerns over the future of Gaza, stressed that the Palestinian Authority will be the only body in charge of governing the enclave, noting that Hamas and other armed factions will lay down their weapons.

"Hamas will not have a role in governance. It, along with other factions, must hand over weapons to the Palestinian Authority because we want one unarmed state, one law, and one legitimate security force."

The Palestinian leader reiterated his government's condemnation of what he called Israeli crimes in Gaza, antisemitism and the capturing and killing of civilians. He also extended the same condemnation to Hamas for their plotted attack two years ago.

Abbas also demanded support for Palestine's full membership in the United Nations. This could, however, become complicated, as the recognition of statehood is seen as largely symbolic, and the process of becoming a full-fledged member could become turbulent.

The UN sends new applications for membership to the Security Council for a vote. Successful applicants must obtain at least nine affirmative votes from the council, including no vetoes from any of the five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the UK and the US.

For its part, Washington remains resolute in its opposition to Palestinian statehood and is thus likely to use its veto power to block Palestine's full membership.

Hope remains slim

The situation on the ground does not indicate that Palestine is going towards a two-state solution.

Israel is continuing to expand its settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are considered illegal in international law, further diminishing what little land Palestinians administer in the territory, and with it the premise of a two-state solution as adopted by the UN on the 1967 borders.

Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has previously proposed annexing more than 80% of the West Bank, an initiative also endorsed by Netanyahu.

"Indeed, we doubled Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria - and we will continue on this path," said the Israeli premier.

The offensive on Gaza is also showing no signs of abating, as it continues across several parts of the enclave, primarily in Gaza City, where Israeli forces launched an operation just days ago to target what it said were Hamas strongholds.

The Israel-Hamas war has so far claimed the lives of more than 65,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, whose figures do not distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties.

However, the UN says more than two-thirds of deaths it has been able to independently verify were women and children.