Tokyo uses AI to warn residents to prepare for the worst with simulation of Mount Fuji erupting

Tokyo could be buried under volcanic ash in just two hours if Mount Fuji erupts for the first time in 300 years. Japanese officials want residents to prepare for the worst.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has released an AI-generated video simulating a potential eruption of Mount Fuji, Japan’s most iconic active volcano, to urge residents to prepare for a possible disaster.

The video depicts Tokyo blanketed in volcanic ash, paralysing vital infrastructure such as transport links.

The video also shows billboards across the capital flashing images of smoke clouds rising around Mount Fuji, as the narration says, “The moment may arrive without any warning”.

Mount Fuji is located in Honshu, 100 km southwest of Tokyo, but volcanic ash could reach the capital in as little as one to two hours depending on wind direction, eruption scale and weather conditions, according to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

It may also disturb water supplies and cause blockage and backflow in the sewage and storm drain system, the video warns.

“Since we do not know when Mt. Fuji will erupt and blanket us with volcanic ash, protect ourselves and loved ones, we need to arm ourselves with facts. And prepare for disaster in our daily lives,” the video said as it shows a family’s well-stocked pantry with tinned food and a first-aid kit.

‘Worst case scenario’

Japan’s geography and climate make it highly vulnerable to natural disasters, including earthquakes, typhoons, floods, tsunamis, mudslides and volcanic eruptions.

The East Asian country is known for its meticulous disaster planning and campaigns to promote disaster preparedness through drills and educational activities. 

Experts say that while the video illustrates a “worst-case scenario”, its portrayal of Tokyo streets choked with ash, transport halted, waterways poisoned, and infrastructure crippled is plausible.

“Although it may seem alarmist, it's kind of trying to reproduce the worst-case scenario, prepare for the worst, hope for the best sort of thing,” said James Hickey, an associate professor in geophysics and volcanology at the University of Exeter.

Deteriorating effects of volcanic ash

Volcanic gas and ash can have multiple effects, including severe health threats and damage to buildings.

"Ash is basically ground-up pieces of volcanic rock that have been blasted apart in the explosion. It's very sharp and jagged. It's essentially a glass. So it can be very disruptive to ears, nose and throat, particularly for anyone with asthma or other respiratory illnesses,” Hickey said.

In case of rain, large build-ups of volcanic ash could start to influence the structural integrity of buildings.

“It can form a very thick, sludgy and potentially heavy deposit on the top of roofs, and if the roofs aren't quite strong enough, then they can collapse," Hickey added.

He says airspace may be closed and railwork may halt as well.

While Mount Fuji's eruption risk remains low, Hickey believes AI can allow Tokyo locals to better grasp the significance of a large eruption.

“We can't really do much to stop the volcano from erupting. So the only way to reduce the risk from an eruption is to try and improve the resilience of people around that volcano or to reduce the things that are exposed to the volcano,” Hickey said.

The volcano's most recent large-scale eruption was in 1707, and AI may be able to supplement the lack of photo or video materials of an eruption of Mount Fuji.

"We don't have any lived memory of that eruption. We only have a painting, for example. So we can't use specifics from Fuji to educate people about Fuji. You could show them pictures of Mount Pinatubo or Mount St Helens, but it's hard for them to transplant that knowledge from one volcano to another. 

The video was released for awareness purposes on Japan’s Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Day, August 26. The Tokyo government said in a statement that there are currently no signs of Fuji erupting.

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