Iceland goes to the polls in high-stakes EU referendum

Icelanders are voting today on whether to resume their EU accession bid or shelve the prospect of joining the bloc for the foreseeable future.

Polling stations are open from 9am to 10pm local time, with voters deciding whether to return to membership negotiations or reject even exploring what a deal would look like.

A "Yes" vote would not commit Iceland to joining the EU, but it would reopen accession talks, with any eventual membership deal put to another referendum.

Iceland applied to join the bloc in 2009, in the wake of its financial crisis. However, a new Eurosceptic government took office in 2013 and suspended EU accession talks, before formally withdrawing the country's candidacy in 2015.

A pro-EU coalition then won the 2024 election on a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on resuming that path, and the vote is taking place today.

With just under 400,000 inhabitants, Iceland would become the EU's smallest member state by population, a title currently held by Malta. But the stakes of the vote are much higher than the country's size would suggest.

Ten years after the UK's Brexit referendum, the European project has a chance to regain enlargement momentum – and in particular to prove it still holds appeal for wealthier Nordic countries, with Norway watching closely.

Early voting has been unusually brisk: more than 40,000 people, almost 15% of the electorate, had already cast ballots by Wednesday, according to Icelandic media. That figure is notable given early voting only opened on 27 July, though the unusually long early-voting window makes comparisons with past elections difficult.

RÚV, Iceland's public broadcaster, reported on Saturday that voter turnout in Reykjavik was stronger than for the nation's 2024 parliamentary elections as of 11am local time, with just over 8% having voted compared to 5% at the same time in the 2024 voting.

Polls have narrowed steadily, leaving the outcome too close to call. The latest polling from market research company Maskína, published on Friday, found that 50.4% said they would vote "Yes," while 49.6% said they would vote "No".

The referendum's result will be advisory, not legally binding, but a clear "Yes" would inevitably put Reykjavik under pressure to move forward.

Initial results are expected in the early hours of Sunday morning.