Could high-speed trains run from London to Europe every 15 minutes?

Catching a train from London to mainland Europe could soon become a lot more straightforward.

High-speed services between London St Pancras and destinations including Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam could depart as often as every 15 minutes by the end of the decade, as Eurostar faces growing competition from the likes of Virgin Trains and Italy’s Trenitalia.

Currently, there are around 25 daily round trips made by Eurostar, but it’s hoped that figure will rise to 55 by the end of the 2020s, which is an equivalent of four departures every hour.

Since its launch in 1994, the Channel Tunnel, which cross-Channel trains run through, has been operating under capacity, despite rumours other operators would start their own services.

Now, that could be set to change.

Last week, Virgin Trains was given permission by the Office for Rail and Road (ORR) to run its services along the route, although it hasn’t yet been granted access to the tunnel itself.

Virgin Trains has not yet been given permission to run its trains through the Channel Tunnel, as it's owned by Eurotunnel and that would be a separate agreement.

“Our plans for a new London-Europe rail service from 2030 are moving at pace," a Virgin Group spokesperson told Euronews Travel last week. "We welcome the ORR’s pre-approval of our track access agreement and the opportunity to bring competition and Virgin’s award-winning customer experience to the Channel Tunnel."

Nevertheless, Martin Jones, a Deputy Director of the ORR, told Politico the fact Virgin can use high-speed tracks in the UK and on the continent is “an important next step in bringing competition and growth to the market for international rail services”.

If Virgin does get full access, it aims to run trains by 2030, and it might be joined by Trenitalia, Italy’s state railway, which hopes to run about 10 round trips every day, starting in 2029.

The Italian operator placed a €2 billion order for 19 new high-speed trains earlier this month, and it’s thought some of them will be used for international journeys to and from London.

As far back as 2010, German state railway Deutsche Bahn showed interest in using the route, too, but that fell by the wayside after Brexit, although owners may now be changing their mind back.

Running more trains to Europe isn’t straightforward

Whichever companies do successfully operate trains on the line will need to jump through a number of regulatory hoops.

Operators need separate authorisations in each country they travel for, as well as the Channel Tunnel. They also need space in a UK-based depot. Last year, the ORR gave the last spots in the Temple Mills depot, used by Eurostar, to Virgin.

That hasn’t put would-be competitors off, including Gemini Trains, which wants to run 11 trains a day by 2030. The British startup is currently looking at opening its own depot outside of London, although it currently has no trains or track access.

Eurostar is also looking towards the future, and has ordered up to 50 new trains to be delivered in the early 2030s, which will help the company run to new destinations including Frankfurt and Geneva.

One issue facing all companies who’ll potentially run on the route is the diminutive space available at St Pancras, where seating capacity already means not every passenger can find a seat before they board their train to the continent.

Train lines are also a consideration. The UK high-speed line can carry up to eight international trains an hour, rail paths in mainland Europe will need to be secured ahead of any increase in train numbers.