Analyst says ICC arrest warrants unlikely to end Gaza war

There has been widespread reaction to the three arrest warrants issued on Thursday by the International Criminal Court against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, and Hamas commander, Ibrahim Al-Masri.

ICC judges said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe the three men bore "criminal responsibility" for crimes during the war between Israel and Hamas.

Israel has said it killed Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, in an airstrike in July but Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied this.

An international lawyer and analyst said the arrest warrants were expected due to the ongoing war and the rising death toll in Gaza.

"Palestinians are killed, maimed, deprived of food every single day. And the war has been going on for too long,” said Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow of the International Security Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London

“I think this was avoidable. The pre-trial chamber waited quite a long time to see whether the trends will change. But the war continues. The death toll in Gaza is rising. You have 40,000 children, women, and few men waiting for emergency medical care.”

The court’s decision was condemned by Israel, but welcomed by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and ordinary people in Gaza.

Bar-Yaacov said Netanyahu's freedom of movement is now limited, as he cannot travel to ICC member states, including key European countries like the UK, France and Germany.

"I don't think Netanyahu will be arrested because he's not going to take the risk of travelling to any country that will be able to issue an arrest warrant. So in that sense, it limits his freedom of movement, but that will only strengthen his ties to Donald Trump."

The United States, a non-member of the International Criminal Court, is not bound to act on the arrest warrants, but she said she believes the move will further deepen global divides.

"I certainly think he'll be going to the US, especially since his mate Donald Trump has been elected president. I don't think that Netanyahu or Trump care in the sense of actually going to do anything," she added.

Bar-Yaacov called the ICC's warrants significant but doubted the move's impact on ending the war.

"This action has been taken. But the big question is whether it's going to give those people any relief and what action is actually going to be taken," she said.