Russia cannot seize all of Donetsk region unless Ukraine withdraws from it, ISW says

Russian president Vladimir Putin reportedly told Donald Trump that one his demands for peace in Ukraine is full control of the Donbas.

The region in eastern Ukraine, which had a pre-war population of around 6.5 million people, is made up of two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk.

Moscow's demands regarding this area are not new, and even date back before the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Putin has been trying to occupy Donbas for 11 years, since Russia's first invasion of Ukraine, when after the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsular, Russian forces occupied territories in the east of the country.  

But even following the all-out war, Moscow has still failed to occupy all of Donbas militarily and hopes now to do it with the maximalist demands under Trump's mediation.  

The US-based Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia will be unable to seize the remainder of Donetsk region rapidly through force, as Russian forces have failed to do for over a decade.

"Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk region if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from it," the ISW said, after an analysis of Russian advances in the area, adding that Putin's claim that Russian forces will inevitably seize all of Donetsk region if the war continues is false.

The ISW provides some examples of the settlements and areas where Moscow's forces have dedicated most of their efforts since February 2022.

The Russian campaign for Chasiv Yar, began in May 2023 after Russian forces seized Bakhmut. It had then intensified a year later in April 2024 but in all, it has taken Russian forces 26 months to advance roughly 11 kilometres from western Bakhmut to the western edge of Chasiv Yar.

The Pokrovsk assault campaign began in February 2024 after the seizure of Avdiivka. Moscow has dedicated multiple efforts to seizing Pokrovsk through frontal assaults, envelopment or encirclement, all of which have thus far been unsuccessful after more than 18 months.

Putin previously said he also wants to control two more region of Ukraine: Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

This, according to UK defence ministry estimates, would take Moscow four and a half years, in addition to 2 million more Russian casualties - both killed and wounded - on top of the 1 million troops Russia has already lost since the war started in 2022.