Weakening Russia's war machine: Why Kyiv is targeting Moscow's energy sector

Ukraine has significantly intensified its attacks against Russia's energy sector over the past few weeks. On Sunday, Kyiv targeted a gas terminal in the Leningrad region and an oil refinery in Samara.

According to Russian Telegram channels, a large fire broke out at the Novatek gas terminal in the port city of Ust-Luga.

The regional governor of Leningrad, Alexander Drozdenko, claimed that 10 drones were shot down in Ust-Luga, adding that there were no casualties and fuel tanks at a port nearby had not been affected.

Ust-Luga is situated on the southern shore of the Gulf of Finland in the Leningrad region, not far from the Estonian border and around 110km west of St Petersburg.

A source in Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) confirmed to The Kyiv Independent news outlet that the SBU was behind the attack on the liquefied natural gas terminal.

"Russia trades oil and gas through this terminal with the help of a 'shadow fleet'. Drone sanctions from the SBU reduce the inflow of foreign currency that Russia needs to wage war," the source said.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also confirmed that Military Intelligence (HUR), the Unmanned Systems Forces and other defence agencies were behind the strike on the Syzran oil refinery in Samara, which "specialises in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and other petroleum supplied to the Russian troops."

"The Syzran refinery has a design capacity of up to 8.5 million tons of crude oil per year, accounting for around 3.08% of Russia's total oil refining volume," General Staff wrote on Telegram.

Earlier this month, Ukraine also targeted the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia, as well as large refineries in the Saratov and Rostov regions.

Kyiv has been focusing its drone attacks on Russia's refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains in an effort to weaken the Russian war machine.

Ukraine's military intelligence said the Ukrainian Armed Forces are systematically implementing measures aimed at "reducing the combat potential of the Russian occupation forces, destabilising their logistical capabilities, particularly in terms of fuel and lubricant supplies, and forcing Russia to cease its armed aggression against Ukraine."

According to United24, a platform created under the initiative of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian oil refining capacity fell by more than 13% in August following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on key facilities, leaving several major plants offline.

"When the enemy strikes our energy infrastructure, trying to leave us without light or heat, then its oil refineries burn. And no one can forbid us such strikes because it's justice itself that delivers them." he said.

Since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russia has been targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, causing massive power outages across the country, specifically during the winter period, leaving millions of Ukrainians without electricity and heating.

On Monday, Zelenskyy said Moscow had already started its preparations for winter by striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

"This applies not only to electricity and heat generation but also our natural gas production," he explained.

Pressure on Russia's economy intensifies

Russians are likely to face higher taxes as the burden on the budget grows and the Central Bank of Russia says that "the economy needs a breather".

Russia's financial regulator published an order defining nine criteria by which banks may introduce a temporary limit on cash withdrawals from ATMs.

It is noteworthy that the central bank's order appeared against the backdrop of problems with ATMs, online services and fast payment system due to disruptions with mobile communication and internet in all regions of the country, which have been happening regularly for several months and are accompanied by problems with voice communication and navigation.

A fuel crisis is intensifying in Russia and the regions of Ukraine that it has seized amid rising petrol prices.

According to the latest reports, at least three refineries have completely halted operations. According to various estimates, successful attacks by the AFU have reduced production by 10-15%

According to the Russian-language "Vot Tak" of the Centre for International Broadcasting TVP (Polish Public Television), problems with access to petrol have been observed in several regions in Russia.

In some areas there are huge queues at petrol stations and a system of coupons has been introduced recently. There are also reports in the Russian media that petrol is increasingly being sold only to organisations and businesses.