Analysis: What happened to Trump’s deadline for Russia's reality check

Having first met Russia's leader Vladimir Putin and then his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August, US President Donald Trump said Washington would have a clear picture of whether an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine is attainable within half a month.

"We will know within two weeks whether there will be peace in Ukraine. After that we will have to maybe take a different tack," Trump said on 21 August.

He did not elaborate on what that would entail, but Russia’s intentions in its all-out invasion of Ukraine have not changed since.

What happened on the ground in Ukraine in the past two weeks?

Russia has intensified its summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, aiming at occupying all of the Donetsk region — Moscow’s prime target since the first invasion of 2014.

Russian troops have focused explicitly on the Dobropillia, Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka areas. In mid-August, they have reportedly penetrated Ukrainian defences and temporarily seized positions on a nearby settlement to support further offensive operations.

Kyiv responded by deploying its best forces to the area. On 12 August, the elite Azov Corps confirmed it had been deployed to the Pokrovsk sector amid the Russian offensive in the area.

A few days later, Kyiv reported that Pokrovsk was cleared of Russian sabotage groups, the Dobropollia area penetration was stopped, and a few settlements were liberated from Russian troops.

According to DeepState, an interactive open-source intelligence project, the pace of Russia's advance in Ukraine slowed by 18% in August.

"The increase in occupied territory over the past two years and 11 months is virtually zero," Deepstate said.

Ukrainian defence troops managed to slow down the Russian offensive and clear the infiltrated area, although Moscow has not changed its strategy and clearly hoped to occupy more territory for any possible negotiations.  

Intensified aerial attacks against Ukraine

Alongside its summer offensive in the eastern regions, Russia has significantly intensified its aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians.

Since the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin on 15 August, Russia has launched 3,372 missiles and drones against Ukraine.

On 28 August, Russia unleashed 629 air attack weapons, partially destroying the buildings belonging to the European Union and the British Council in Kyiv, causing both the EU and the UK to summon top Russian diplomats stationed in their capitals.

Twenty-five people, including four children, were killed in what was Moscow’s second-biggest aerial attack since its full-scale invasion in early 2022.

One month earlier on 29 July, Russia launched its deadliest attack against Ukraine, killing 32 people in Kyiv.

A few weeks prior, on 9 July, Moscow unleashed its most significant aerial strike on Ukraine involving 741 drones and missiles.

No diplomatic progress from Moscow

Having met Putin and Zelenskyy, Trump said the next step should be a one-on-one between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia.

The US president described it as a crucial meeting in his push to put an end to Moscow’s war and admitted there might be two meetings: first, a bilateral summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, followed by a trilateral one when the US president would join them.

Zelenskyy dispatched his top envoys to tour possible locations for a meeting with Putin, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Putin for the abduction of Ukrainian children limits the choice of location, as he risks arrest in any of the court's 125 member states if he sets foot into their territory.

Some of them like Switzerland and Austria said they are ready to make an exception and promised not to arrest Putin if he comes for a meeting, which could put an end to the war against Ukraine.

But it does not seem like the Russian president is going anywhere any time soon.

Moscow has repeatedly rejected the possibility of direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks, citing various reasons, including that preparations are not yet complete, questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy, and stating that they never agreed to any meeting in the first place.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, who was present at the Alaska summit in August, said on Tuesday that no agreement was made between Trump and Putin to meet with the Ukrainian leader.

What now?

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed readiness for a direct meeting with Putin, urging the US to impose stricter measures if Russia continues to avoid such talks.

Announcing a new two-week deadline for Moscow, Trump said he will "take a different tack" if there is no progress.

This is not the first time Trump has set deadlines for the Kremlin and threatened to take tougher measures against Moscow. However, none of his deadline threats have materialised so far.

Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly redeployed its "elite" naval infantry and airborne (VDV) forces to the Donetsk region from northern Sumy and the Kherson direction, indicating Moscow’s strategy for the upcoming autumn 2025 offensive.

Russia is once again prioritising the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk directions, as it was a year ago, still hoping to envelop Pokrovsk, advance toward Dobropillia, and bypass Ukraine’s Donetsk region fortress belt from the west.

Not only is Russia not showing any signs of a possible truce, it is still pushing to occupy all of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, despite significant manpower losses.

The Kremlin is also not planning to stop its aerial attacks: Putin said on Tuesday that Moscow will attack Ukrainian energy sites.

Every autumn Russia intensifies its attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages and heating problems in winter.

Visiting China this week, Putin once again confirmed that his intentions towards Ukraine have not changed, and Trump has not convinced him to stop.

Putin again blamed the West and NATO for his ongoing all-out war against Ukraine during the address at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, indicating that he is not willing to put an end to it any time soon.