Should NATO’s eastern bloc expect more drone attacks as Russia and Belarus start Zapad-2025?

Out of the 19 Russian drones crossing into Poland overnight on Wednesday, at least a couple came via Belarus, Ukraine’s president said.

“At least two Russian drones that entered Polish territory during the night used Belarusian airspace,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

“In total, at least several dozen Russian drones were moving along the border of Ukraine and Belarus.” 

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s air defence destroyed more than 380 Russian drones of various models. At least 250 of them were Shaheds.

Kyiv is now investigating the drone types and the details of the Russian attack, Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine is ready “to expand cooperation with partners for reliable protection of the sky”.

What do Russia and Belarus say?

Russia’s Defence Ministry said it did not plan to attack any targets in Poland during its attack against Ukraine. 

“No objects on Polish territory were planned to be targeted. The maximum range of UAV’s used in the strike (on Ukraine) does not exceed 700km.” 

Moscow added that it is ready to “hold consultations with the Polish defence ministry on the subject”. 

Belarus said the drones entered Polish airspace “accidentally”, after their navigation systems were jammed. 

Pavel Muravyeika, deputy defence minister of Belarus, has claimed the UAVs "lost their way" and that Belarus itself had shot some down over its own territory. 

In a video on the official Belarusian Defence Ministry Telegram channel, Muravyeika said between 11 pm and 4 am, his own forces, Poland, and Lithuania shared information through "communication channels" on the stray drones. 

The attacks come just days before Poland is set to close its border with Belarus due to what the Polish prime minister called “very aggressive” military exercises between Russia and Belarus. 

What is Zapad-2025?

Zapad — meaning "west" in Russian — are joint Russia-Belarus military exercises held in September, usually every four years. This time, the drills are scheduled to start on 12 September. 

The drills were first inaugurated in 2009 to coordinate and train the Regional Military Grouping, which combined the Belarusian military and the Russian 20th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District.

Every Zapad manoeuvre reportedly involves between 12,000 and 13,000 troops, though NATO has argued that the officially reported numbers are questionable and doubted their purpose.

However, earlier exercises showed that Moscow and Minsk gamed fictional scenarios which were eerily similar to real-world countries in their neighbourhood or indicated future plans.

Zapad-2017 drills, for example, featured three fictional states, Vesbaria, Lubenia and Veyshnoria, which resembled the Baltic states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and included territories in the Suwalki gap, an area of land separating the Russian exclave of the Kaliningrad region and western Belarus.

In September 2021 — just months before Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — Moscow claimed 12,800 servicemen participated in Zapad-2021 on Belarusian territory.

The total number of troops in the region was, in fact, around 200,000. In February 2022 Russia used forces that had remained in Belarus after the exercises ended to attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Poland to close Belarus border

Even before Wednesday’s drone attack, Poland announced that it would close its border with Belarus at midnight on 11 September over security concerns tied to large-scale Russia-led military exercises, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. 

"On Friday, Russian-Belarusian manoeuvres, very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective, begin in Belarus, very close to the Polish border," Tusk told the government on Tuesday.

"Therefore, for national security reasons, we will close the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, in connection with the Zapad maneuvers on Thursday at midnight."

Polish President Karol Nawrocki warned, “We do not trust Vladimir Putin’s good intentions”. 

“While waiting, of course, for a long-term peace, permanent peace, which is necessary to our regions, we believe that Vladimir Putin is ready to also invade other countries.”

Lithuania also announced it would reinforce security along its frontier with Belarus and Russia.

New military base reportedly under construction in Belarus

A new military installation is reportedly being built in Belarus, which analysts warn may hold strategic significance for Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

According to Radio Svoboda, construction began in June 2024 south of Minsk, near the village of Pavlovka. The site now spans more than 2 square kilometres. 

Experts believe the complex may house Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missile system.

Within a year, more than a square kilometre of forest in the western part of the area had been cleared, and 13 ammunition depots measuring 30 by 20 metres were constructed behind defensive walls, along with three warehouses each 100 metres long.

Foundations for various other buildings were also laid, linked by a network of mainly paved roads.

Belarusian officials have not acknowledged the project. No official documents or land registry records mention the base.

A joint investigation by Ukraine’s Radio Svoboda “Schemes” project, Radio Liberty Belarus Service and Estonian outlets Delfi Estonia and Eesti Ekspress also found the second new facility on the outskirts of the city of Gomel, less than 40 km from the border with Ukraine. 

The journalists believe this is a future military base. Construction began here in late 2023, with trees cut down, the site cleared, and infrastructure actively being built. 

The size and infrastructure of the facility correspond to existing military bases in Belarus, meaning it could potentially accommodate an army brigade of about 3,000 personnel.