Ahead of crucial snap election in Moldova, Transnistrians remain uncertain

Moldovans are set to go out and vote on 28 September in a crucial snap parliamentary election set to determine the country's future.

The election comes at a pivotal moment for Moldova, a candidate country for EU membership, which finds itself in close proximity to Russia's war in Ukraine while under a barrage of hybrid attacks from Moscow.

President Maia Sandu called for a snap election after the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Dorin Recean collapsed last month following a vote of no confidence.

Opinion polls indicate a tight race between pro-European and pro-Russian political forces, which means every vote will matter.

The votes of Moldovans living in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway territory which claimed unilateral and internationally unrecognised independence following a short war in 1992, are of particular importance.

Authorities are preparing 12 special polling stations along the administrative border for these citizens, with an expected turnout of nearly 30,000 people, a figure similar to last year's presidential election.

In the 2024 presidential election 80% of Transnistrian voters backed the Russia-friendly socialist-backed independent candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, while 20% voted for the pro-EU incumbent, Maia Sandu.

The outcome of this election is not a given. According to sociologist Mihai Bologan, the region's vote is more nuanced than it appears.

"We are talking about a significant number, but previous elections show that not only left-wing candidates get votes from Transnistria, but even PAS (Action and Solidarity Party) or even some unionist parties managed to do that," Bologan said.

"So, the vote will probably influence things slightly in favour of the left-wing party... but it will also give some votes to PAS."

Moldovan authorities have placed police on alert to ensure the smooth and secure operation of the polling stations on election day.

Since 1992, Moscow has maintained about 1,500 troops in Transnistria, acting as peacekeepers.

Voices from the border

Regardless of their opinion, Transnistria residents have expressed a general sense of uncertainty.

One man said he favoured a middle path for the country. "It should be with both them and the others," he told Euronews, referring to the EU and Russia. "That's the best option, so we can sell and buy everything."

On the topic of the self-proclaimed enclave, he was clear: "It shouldn't be (separate), because once upon a time there was one Moldova, there was no Transnistria."

Another resident was undecided about participating. "I haven't planned to vote, of course, but if I have time, I will," he said.

When asked what he would vote for, he replied, "Probably for some changes... some peace and quiet, something good. Lately, there seems to be a lot of bad news. I want something good."

Others expressed deep cynicism about the political process. "There will be no changes, that's 100%," one Transnistrian resident stated.

"I don't know which path they will take, but it won't be a good one ... In over 30 years, nothing has been done, and nothing will be done now."