Was Kirk’s funeral an inflexion point for Trump?

It was part memorial and part rallying cry: For more than five hours, the biggest names in Donald Trump’s universe gathered outside of Phoenix to address the MAGA faithful.

They called on the tens of thousands of people in the stadium – and the country at large – to carry on Charlie Kirk’s conservative mission to engage with America’s youth and to inject more Christianity into the US government.

Kirk always hoped to influence politics through faith – to bring “the Holy Spirit into a Trump rally”, Tyler Bowyer, a top executive at Turning Point Action, the political advocacy group founded by Kirk in 2019, told the crowd.

Mission accomplished. Inside the stadium, the atmosphere resembled more of a raucous megachurch service than a subdued memorial.

Trump eulogized the slain activist as a “martyr” – a man who fought on the political battlefield and was felled by an assassin’s bullet.

Depending on people’s perspective, the president was combative or nervous.

The murder of the 31-year old Kirk has shocked the Trump administration like nothing before.

In Kirk, they saw a disciple of the president who had devoted his life to converting young people to the conservative cause – a key, yet unreliable group of voters, a critical mass of which supported Trump in 2024 and which his successor will need in 2028.

Many speakers said they hoped that Kirk’s death would revitalise the conservative-evangelical power base in the US ahead of Congressional and presidential elections in 2026 and 2028.

In those votes, Republicans will be defending their “trifecta”, their hold of control of the White House and both Houses of Congress.

It was notable that of the some 100,00 at the service, there were many in the younger demographic who Kirk was reaching out to.

But will Kirk’s legacy drive more voters to the polls?

A delicate political moment for Trump

The memorial service came at a delicate political moment for Trump, with primaries for next year’s midterm elections creeping onto the public’s radar.

And the latest surveys suggest deep insecurity and wide dissatisfaction among Americans – which they are putting squarely on Trump’s doorstep.

In an AP-NORC poll conducted days after Kirk’s assassination, the outlook on the direction of the country has soured dramatically.

And it’s among Republicans where this sentiment is particularly pronounced.

Today, only 49% of Republicans see the nation on the right course, down from 70% in June.

This massive shift is even more glaring among women and people under 45, the critical age group that Kirk tried to expand for the Republicans.

Overall, about one-quarter of Americans (Republicans, Democrats and Independents) believes the country is on the right track, down from about 40% in June.

Interviews with Republicans who took the poll suggest that political violence and nagging worries about social discord are playing a role in the notable shift in their mood.

But they also mentioned typical bread-and-butter issues like jobs and the economy.

Trump's poll numbers have tanked

And here, Trump’s approval ratings have tanked.

In the AP-NORC poll, 62% of respondents say they disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the economy (up from 53% in August), 63% are dissatisfied with his trade policy.

A Washington Post-Ipsos poll, also taken after Kirk’s death paints a similar downbeat picture of Trump’s presidency eight months into his second term.

In this poll, respondents disapprove of the way Trump is handling tariffs (64%) and the overall economy (59%) by large margins.

And according to a Yahoo/YouGov poll from early September, 62% of respondents disapprove of the way Trump is handling inflation and cost of living.

These numbers on the economy could be especially concerning for Republicans ahead of the midterms. More than two-thirds of Americans describe the state of the economy as “poor” or “not so good”.

When, last week, Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum asked Trump about the conservative network’s own similarly bad polling numbers on the economy, a thin-skinned Trump shot back.

“Fox polling, I have to tell you, I’ve told you before, it’s the worst polling I’ve ever had… I’ve told Rupert Murdoch, go get yourself a new pollster, because he stinks.”

Republican strategists optimistic for midterms next year

Despite the current strong headwinds for Trump in the polls, Republican strategists see a silver lining on the horizon.

They believe that the anguish and anger over Kirk’s assassination has galvanized young conservatives. Support they hope can help win votes at the ballot box in 2026.

“What Charlie started was a massive movement - clearly helped President Trump in a big way, probably more than anybody else with the youth vote in 2024,” said Joe Mitchell, founder of Run GenZ, a group that encourages young conservatives to run for elected office. “And after him being assassinated, that’s going to grow tenfold from a voter-participation standpoint.”

Republicans like Mitchell say they’ve already seen increased engagement in the days since Kirk’s death in the form of both financial donations and volunteer sign-ups.

And they’re vowing to find more ways to tap into it over the coming months, eager to find effective ways to persuade young conservatives to join their campaigns.

“We’re committed to earning every vote and continuing Charlie Kirk’s movement that has inspired a new generation of conservatives,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.