Tomahawks for Ukraine: Game changing weapon or leverage over Moscow?

Russia has again ramped up its attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid as the weather became noticeably colder, just as Moscow did every autumn since its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Although Ukraine’s air defence has improved significantly and is now capable of intercepting most of the deadly drones Russia launches daily in droves, Kyiv is hoping for something beyond the additional support it requested from partners.

Ukraine has asked for something strategically crucial to its goals: long-range missiles to strike Russia’s launching pads instead of remaining limited to intercepting hundreds of drones and tens of missiles once they already reach Ukrainian skies.

Fresh off the Gaza ceasefire deal, US President Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that he might allow the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. They would give Kyiv the ability to hit deeper into Russia’s rear and make those strikes more powerful and precise.

A key part of the US arsenal, Tomahawk missiles have an operational range of 1,600 to 2,500 kilometres and a powerful warhead weighing 400 to 450 kilograms. For the moment, Ukraine relies on Western-supplied missiles, such as Storm Shadow, which have a limited range of about 250 kilometres.

For anything beyond this, Kyiv is utilising its domestically produced drones and drone-like missiles, such as the Palianytsia, but their warhead payload is restricted to 50-100 kilograms.

As Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepare to meet in Washington on Friday, the issue of Tomahawks is high on the agenda, if not at the top.

“He would like to have Tomahawks,” Trump said of Zelenskyy. “We have a lot of Tomahawks.”

Euronews sources among Ukrainian officials said Kyiv is doing its best to outline to Washington why it needs Tomahawk missiles, what long-range weapons the country already has, and what Ukraine is lacking, and that this will be discussed at the White House on Friday.

'Their tech is saving lives'

The Ukrainian delegation is already in the US ahead of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.

Head of Zelenskyy’s office, Andriy Yermak, together with the Prime Minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, and other Ukrainian officials, has met the US defence companies Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

Raytheon is the producer of Tomahawk missiles.

“Their tech is saving lives: F-16s and advanced air defence systems are shielding Ukrainian skies”, Yermak said in a post on X. "Their offensive solutions strongly support our forces on the frontline,” he added.

Without mentioning Tomahawk missiles, Yermak said this cooperation with Ukraine keeps growing.

“Each downed Russian missile or destroyed enemy command post proves the quality of US weapons and the professionalism of our troops,” he explained.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW) has assessed that there are at least 1,945 Russian military facilities within range of the 2,500-kilometre variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometre variant.

“Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations,” the ISW analysis said.

Trump’s leverage over Moscow

The possibility of Ukraine getting Tomahawk missiles triggered worry and sabre-rattling from Moscow.

The Kremlin said it is causing “extreme concern” in Russia, adding that the war is entering what spokeseperson Dmitry Peskov called a “dramatic moment in terms of the fact that tensions are escalating from all sides.”

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened the US and Trump personally with a nuclear response.

“It’s been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it’s impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight," Medvedev said.

“The delivery of these missiles could end badly for everyone. And most of all, for Trump himself.”

But for Trump, there is one more critical aspect regarding the possibility of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

Euronews sources among Ukrainian officials confirmed that Kyiv's argument to convince the White House to send Tomahawk missiles is that they remain game changers and among the most important levers of influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US president suggested over the past several days that the mere threat of this could force Putin to the negotiating table. Trump also said he planned to talk directly with the Russian president about the subject.

“If this war doesn’t get settled, I may send Tomahawks,” Trump said.

“A Tomahawk is an incredible weapon. And Russia does not need that. If the war is not settled, we may do it. We may not. But we may do it.”