The fall of Vuhledar: Ukrainian forces withdraw after two and a half years of fighting

Kyiv forces have withdrawn from the town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian military command confirmed on Wednesday. 

According to the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState, Russian soldiers entered the coal-mining city in the Donbas on Tuesday, advancing from the West and South.

The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported earlier that Moscow's forces have also been advancing northeast of the town. 

Geolocated footage published on Monday and Tuesday shows Russian forces planting Russian flags and freely operating in various parts of Vuhledar, and Russian military bloggers claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces seized the settlement.

Donetsk regional governor Vadym Filashkin said the situation on Tuesday was "very difficult". “The enemy is already nearly in the centre of the city," he told Ukrainian TV.

By Wednesday, the Khortytsia army group officially announced that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn. 

"The higher command authorized a manoeuvre to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to save personnel and military equipment and take up a position for further operations," the group said.

Ukraine's 72nd Mechanised Brigade has defended the town for nearly two years.

The scale of Ukrainian casualties is unknown at this time, however, an orderly withdrawal likely helped avoid greater casualties. 

What is next for Russian forces?

Russian troops have been attempting to capture the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in early 2022. Vuhledar withstood numerous attacks in recent months and weeks as Moscow's forces tried to encircle the town. 

The ISW said it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future.

Now, they will have to first completely clear the town "to make it a useable position from which they can launch future assaults," ISW added, with Ukrainian defensive positions situated northeast of Vuhledar. 

ISW previously assessed that Moscow's seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western parts of the Donetsk region, mainly because Vuhledar is not a particularly crucial logistics node, and Russian forces controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar even before Tuesday.

This means that Russian forces already could interdict Ukrainian logistics in this part of the front to some extent.

Why is Vuhledar important?

Vuhledar's strategic importance lies in its location. The town sits on higher ground between the two fronts: eastern and southern.

To the south, Vuhledar was the last fortified town before the village of Velyka Novosilka and the entire southern part of the Donetsk region that Ukraine controls.

The town is roughly 40 kilometres east of the administrative border with the Zaporizhzhia region. Controlling Vuhledar would also help Russian forces improve their railway logistics, which might help them advance further. 

Moscow's primary target remains the town of Pokrovsk, some 50 kilometres north of Vuhledar. Although threatening Pokrovsk's southern flank, Russian forces would need to manoeuvre across open terrain to meaningfully support offensive operations southeast of Pokrovsk. 

Advancing across an open field area during the upcoming mud season would complicate matters for Russian forces. It is possible that the Ukrainian military command factored the weather aspect into the decision to withdraw its forces from Vuhledar.

And while it won't be an issue for Russian forces to take full control of the town now, the muddy roads and fields would be almost unusable for mechanised assaults should Russian forces decide to advance further. 

They might decide to wait for the ground to freeze before considering the next steps, which would happen in about a month in southern part of Ukraine's Donetsk region.