New race to the moon: could a German be first this time?

Humans are due to land on the moon again in 2027—a return that comes at a time of growing geopolitical tensions reminiscent of the Cold War in many respects: rearmament, new power blocs, and increasing tensions between East and West.

As in the past, space has once again become a stage for strategic competition. A new landing on the moon stands for far more than scientific progress: it is seen as an expression of technological leadership and geopolitical power in the new space race. A permanent presence on the moon promises influence on future space standards, questions of resource utilisation and international cooperation.

The ambitions are correspondingly high. In addition to the USA and Europe, Russia and China in particular are currently pushing ahead with their own programmes. In this context, the European Union is increasingly coming into focus. Not only as a partner of the USA, but increasingly as an independent player in space.

This raises a new question: could this race end with a German on the moon for the first time?

US lunar programme with a European signature

The return of humans to the moon is part of the NASA-led Artemis programme. The United States is leading the way, while international partners—above all the European Space Agency (ESA)—are playing a central role.

A manned orbit of the moon is planned for the first half of 2026 with Artemis 2. One year later, Artemis 3 will see astronauts land on the lunar surface for the first time since 1972. In the long term, the programme also envisages the construction of the Gateway lunar station.

Europe is involved not only politically but also technologically. A key component of the missions is the European service module of the Orion spacecraft, which is being developed by ESA on behalf of NASA and largely built in Germany.

This role could now even be honoured with a priority on the moon: The head of the ESA, Josef Aschbacher, explained that he had decided that the first Europeans on a future moon mission should be astronauts of German, French, and Italian nationality. Germany should make the start.

Gerst as the Gagarin of the 21st century?

Four Germans are currently hoping for a ticket to the moon. As things stand today, Alexander Gerst and Matthias Maurer are considered the most promising candidates.

Gerst, a geophysicist and volcanologist, and Maurer, a materials researcher, have already been on the International Space Station (ISS) and are members of the European Space Agency's (ESA) active astronaut team.

Experience is particularly crucial for the selection process: according to current criteria, only astronauts who have already been in space can be considered for a mission to the moon. The two German reserve astronauts, Amelie Schoenenwald, a biochemist, and Nicola Winter, do not yet fulfil this requirement.

However, as it could still be a few years before an actual moon mission is scheduled, it cannot be ruled out that they will also have space experience by then, and therefore also have a chance.

Gerst is already open to a mission to the moon. When asked whether he could imagine a flight to the moon, he replied, "Of course."

For him, these missions have numerous benefits. Those who play an active role in the lunar programme will also remain at the forefront of key future technologies in space travel—for example, in earth observation, climate research, and Europe's technological autonomy.

Whether a German astronaut will actually be among those who set foot on the Moon cannot be determined at this stage, Gerst said. In his view, this would in any case require a significantly stronger involvement of the European Space Agency in providing key components for the missions.

Europe's striving for independence

However, a European on the moon also has great symbolic significance for Europe. Despite its close co-operation with NASA, Europe remains dependent on the USA in many areas of space travel. At the same time, the European Union is pursuing the goal of becoming more technologically independent.

This strategy is receiving a boost from a record budget for the European Space Agency (ESA). The member states are providing almost 22.1 billion euros for the years 2026 to 2028. One focus is on Europe's independent access to space.

Germany wants to define its role within this framework—as Europe's strongest economic power, preferably at the forefront. Research Minister Dorothee Bär (CSU) speaks of space travel "Made in Germany."

It seems to be no coincidence that her department has officially included the term "space" in its name since the start of the new legislative period.

With 5.1 billion euros, Germany is the largest contributor to the ESA. According to Bär, investment in space travel is necessary despite tight budgets—not only as an investment in the future, but also as a contribution to European sovereignty and security.

Competition in space

Other major powers also have ambitions beyond Earth. In Russia, for example, the state space agency Roskosmos is planning to spend billions and wants to involve private investors to a much greater extent than before.

Among other things, it plans to set up its own satellite internet service modelled on Starlink, which, according to Roskosmos CEO Dmitry Bakanov, is due to launch in 2027.

However, Russia's prospects in the new race to the moon are currently considered limited. Experts are expecting delays due to logistical and financial problems. The Luna-26 moon mission has already been postponed to 2028.

China, on the other hand, is much more dynamic. The People's Republic is pushing ahead with its space programme at a rapid pace and is increasingly positioning itself as a strategic competitor to the USA. The official goal is to launch a manned mission to the moon by 2030, even if Beijing has so far revealed little about specific timetables.

A symbolic first step towards the moon

As far as Germany is concerned, the journey to the moon could begin as early as 2026—but not directly with a German astronaut for the time being. The Italian designer Giulia Bona, who lives in Berlin, has created a mascot that could fly into space on NASA's Artemis 2 mission.

The design shows a small astronaut on the shoulder of a giant called Orion, named after the mission's space capsule and also an allusion to the mythology in which Orion is associated with the goddess Artemis. Such so-called zero-G indicators have a long tradition: Yuri Gagarin is said to have taken a small lucky charm with him into space in 1961.

Bona said she took part in the competition spontaneously. The fact that her design made it to the final round was an "unexpected joy" for her.

She now hopes to see her mascot floating between the astronauts in the live stream when Artemis 2 is launched, which would at least be a symbolic first step for Germany towards the moon.