What lies ahead for Karol Nawrocki, Poland's new president?

Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki took office on Wednesday as Poland's president, potentially setting the country on a more nationalist path and threatening Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government agenda.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Many of them say Nawrocki reflects the values they grew up with, according to political scientist Dr Ewa Marciniak from the Centre for Public Opinion Research.

"The public says Nawrocki has a strong personality, that he is a man who strives hard for his goals, tries to achieve them," Dr Marciniak told Euronews.

In the meantime, Nawrocki is expected to hit the ground running, as he has pledged significant legislative action that could challenge the ruling coalition, Marciniak pointed out.

"He has many ready-made laws which he will refer to the parliamentary majority," she said. "Now, of course, there is the question of whether these bills are acceptable, given the economic and financial circumstances in which Poland finds itself."

Can Nawrocki and Tusk just get along?

While most day-to-day decision-making in Poland is in the hands of the prime minister, the president holds the power to influence foreign policy and veto laws.

According to surveys, the majority of Poles fear that the cohabitation between Tusk and Nawrocki will not be harmonious. The latest survey conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska shows that 62.1% of participants believe there is a risk of conflict between the two, while only 21.4% trust they will see eye to eye.

Nawrocki, who was supported by US President Donald Trump ahead of a narrow victory in a runoff election in June, had no political experience before campaigning. He was not even a political party member until being approached by the conservative Law and Justice or PiS party that governed Poland from 2015 to 2023.

Meanwhile, Tusk, a former European Council president who returned to lead Poland's centrist Civic Coalition government in December 2023, has clashed with conservative forces over EU integration and social policies.

Experts fear that the impending clash might negatively affect both the Polish people and the way Poland is perceived abroad.

"Some of my fellow academics believe that it will not be cohabitation, that we should forget about this term at all, that it will be a permanent battle of advantage, who will drive whom into a corner, who will win some battle in terms of image and politics," Dr Marciniak said.

"But it is also important to remember that it is not the politicians who have to enter this political fray, because we are still the subject of politics. We either lose or gain as a society," she explained.

Nawrocki's campaign echoed themes popular on the US right. A common refrain from his supporters is that Nawrocki will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. And as things stand, other Polish conservatives might decide to rally behind Nawrocki, according to Dr Marciniak.

"It will be an 'anti-Tusk' melange, because according to the announcements, the first words of the new president, this is one of the key principles or one of the key narratives and action."

Challenges await both at home and abroad

Nawrocki’s quick political rise has not been without controversy, with reports linking him to underworld figures whom he met while boxing or working as a hotel security guard in the past.

Nawrocki has also been linked to a scandal involving the acquisition of a Gdansk apartment from a retiree. Allegations suggest Nawrocki promised to care for the man in return but failed to fulfil the commitment, leading the man to end up in a publicly funded retirement home.

Nawrocki's shifting explanations raised questions about his transparency and credibility. After the scandal erupted, he donated the apartment to a charity.

According to Dr Marciniak, while the polls show significant backing, with Nawrocki enjoying the trust of most Poles, considerable parts of the society remain unconvinced, and his main domestic task might be to instil confidence that these scandals are behind him.

"The most crucial one is the unclear situation when it comes to obtaining a flat. The second thing is these sporting fights, these set-ups, which no matter how some leaders of the right showed that this is something normal, well, it is not normal."

"And I think these are the two issues that are going to have quite a long-lasting impact on him," Dr Marciniak said.

Meanwhile, there are also challenges Nawrocki will have to face abroad. As a newcomer, he is an unknown internationally and in the EU, he will have to prove his mettle as an equal among his new peers.

"He will have to build up his position anew, and this initial situation in which he finds himself, these labels that have clung to him during the election campaign, suggest that this will not be an easy task, because, however, presidents of states become people who are already experienced," Dr Marciniak concluded.