COP30: EU countries dodge 2035 climate targets with statement of intent

EU environment ministers announced on Thursday evening a “statement of intent” on climate targets for 2035 to  present at next week's UN General Assembly (UNGA), avoiding taking a decision on a concrete aim.

With member states divided into more or less ambitious camps in relation to a decision on the 2035 climate target set under the Paris Agreement, so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra told reporters the EU "will confront” New York next week with a statement of intent establishing a target range between 66.25% and 72.5% for 2035, compared to 1990 levels.

When asked if the EU would present a specific number for the 2035 target or keep the range proposal, Hoekstra hinted at the possibility that both options “could actually work” adding the idea is “being floated by other UN members”.

Member states will continue discussions on the elements that will enable the feasibility of the proposed targets, such as the consideration of carbon capture storage, carbon removal via land and forestry or carbon credits as part of the overall calculations, Hoekstra said.

Despite criticism from green groups, the EU climate chief expressed confidence in delivering a “clear and strong position” before COP30 but noted the bloc needs more time to formalize decisions.

After lengthy negotiations, the EU will present the statement of intent at the UN Climate Ambition Summit on 24 September, instead of a clear NDC, thus missing the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change deadline of 29 September.

NDCs must be fixed at EU level before the COP30 climate summit in Brazil later this year, but the yearly gathering of world leaders at the UNGA next week is adding political pressure for the bloc to maintain its status as a climate action leader.

“We continue to stand united and will speak with one, clear voice at the UN. It shows a will of the EU and its member states to find solutions in and promote global climate action,” said Danish climate minister Lars Aagaard.

Pressure to fix an ambitious 2035 target comes as the EU is struggling to settle a 2040 climate target at home. The Commission has proposed a binding target of 90% emissions reduction under the bloc’s climate law which was also discussed by ministers on Thursday.

The NDC and the 2040 climate target debate will be back on the table at the gathering of heads of State in October, but a vote on either of the targets is unlikely to take place to avoid either Hungary or Slovakia vetoing. Ministers could come up with a consensus during an extraordinary environment ministers’ meeting “as soon as possible” after the Council meets in October, according to Hoekstra.

Environmental NGO Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe said the statement of intent “falls far short of the required ambition level” expected to reach climate neutrality by 2040.

“Without agreement on the 2040 target, the EU cannot complete its NDC. Both the European Commission and many member states underlined today that the 2035 milestone depends on a 2040 decision,” CAN Europe stated.

Shirley Matheson, global NDC enhancement coordinator at the NGO WWF, said the EU should be setting the bar high and regretted the “missed opportunity” for the bloc to “inspire others to follow”.

“This statement of intent is Olympic-level diplomatic gymnastics, a performance designed to avoid the embarrassment of arriving at COP empty-handed,” said Matheson.