EU drone wall: Keep calm and prepare, expert says

Europe should not overreact to recent drone incursions, assistant director for research at the GLOBSEC GeoTech Centre Alexandr Burilkov told Euronews in an interview.

Incidents have recently been recorded in Poland, Denmark, Romania, and Estonia. In Poland, NATO jets have been alerted, as more than a dozen drones have violated Polish airspace.

In Denmark, Copenhagen Airport was closed as a result of a drone incident. Yesterday, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told journalists Europe shouldn't panic - and GLOBSEC think tank's Burilkov agreed.

"This happened on a regular basis during the Cold War. And yet the Cold War stayed cold. Maintaining a clear head and being pragmatic about these incidents, I believe, is crucial," said Burilkov, an expert on military and security issues in the post-Soviet space.

"And the lessons that they should really teach us is not to overreact hysterically. It's to be ready, just in case. So it's not ignoring that there is a threat."

Burilkov said the current threat is not as pronounced as during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union was more powerful than the Russian Federation could ever hope to be, he said. And there were routine incidents at geographic pinch points, when Soviet bombers and Soviet nuclear-capable aircraft intruded, for example, in the Alaskan air defence zone.

"This has been happening for as long as the Soviet Union had modern aircraft. So all sorts of incidents happened during that period without it ever descending into war between the nuclear powers. And we should really remember that," said Burilkov, who's also a member of the European Expert Network on Terrorism Issues.  

NATO and Europe far behind Russia and Ukraine

Last week, the European Commission floated the idea of a “drone wall” – a detection and response network along the EU’s eastern flank. This system would supposedly detect and destroy suspicious drones entering the EU. 

This initiative brought together ten member states: Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Finland – with the participation of Ukraine, the country with the most advanced drones' capabilities. 

NATO also joined the discussion, which, according to Burilkov, is understandable, as the alliance lags behind Russia and Ukraine when it comes to drones.

"I think this is a question of adding really parallel capabilities because even though we are more than three years into the war, NATO is still less capable on drones compared to both Ukraine and Russia. The Russians have the advantage of a large industry, while the Ukrainians have their Brave-1 innovation ecosystem, which is more flexible than Russia’s. But both are ahead of Europe.”

Burilkov said that Europe needs to take into consideration two factors when setting up the Drone Wall initiative. First, there's the swiftly developing drone sector, and then there's the issue of mass production.

"You can iterate on them a lot faster than other systems because they're small and easy to make. If you want to upgrade a tank, a warship, or a plane, this can be a big effort that takes years. A drone is often 3D printed and uses commercial electronics or engines, so it's very simple to start iterating on better versions. That's one problem," according to Burilkov.

 The other problem is a question of production capacity. The use of drones in Ukraine by both sides is just tremendous. "Up to the millions of small quadcopter style drones, thousands like the larger Russian Geran (Shahed) drones or long-range Ukrainian drones. We don't really have yet that production capability, and that's why drone wall, the idea being to be able to build them in such large quantities that they start making a difference," he added.

The expert added that Europe needs to set up flexible capacities, as the whole industry develops at high speed.

"These things change very quickly. And so it doesn't make sense to buy drones that are the best there is right now and then stockpile them, because will they still be effective in a few years," Burilkov said.

"It makes more sense to have a dual track where you build up production capability so you can scale production if you need to, but you also stay at the leading edge of innovation when it comes to drones."

"So you don't want to commit your defence fully to a system that could gradually become less effective than it is today.”

Burilkov also noted that drone development must be integrated into traditional military developments.

"You cannot just buy drones and ignore traditional capabilities like tanks, artillery, and aircraft. You still need to take the drones and integrate them as part of traditional capabilities," he said.

"Otherwise, you end up with a military force that maybe has sufficient drone capability, but is also very fragile because it doesn't have all these traditional capabilities like tanks that are working as part of combined, mechanised warfare.”

Differing protocols in Europe pose obstacles

Another challenge in the drone wall will be that every member state has differing policies when it comes to neutralisation of drones.

"In Germany, military training gets disrupted routinely by drones. And then if it's one drone, you might be able to neutralise it, but maybe you don't," Burilkov said.

"And if it happens in a populated area, like with these airport intrusions in Denmark, you can't even start shooting it without risking harm.”

Europe can also learn from the incident in Poland, which occurred in early September, when at least 19 drones, said to have been launched from Russia, entered the Polish airspace. Some of them were shot down by military aircraft, while others crashed after running out of fuel.

"It's going to be difficult to develop both a unified policy across the EU, including cross-border cooperation, and also a typology of how to respond to different kinds of drones."

The European Commission seemed reluctant to include Slovakia and Hungary, two eastern flank countries with close ties to Russia, in the drone wall initiative. After Slovakia joined the group, Hungary also received an invitation as the last country from the region.

According to Burilkov, there is divergence between the multi-vector Hungarian foreign policy with ties to Russia and China, and the reality of the Hungarian Armed Forces.

"The Hungarian government is committed to buying almost entirely European military hardware, with small purchases from Israel and the US, which is unusual by European standards," he explained.

"And this has, of course, paid off in attracting the European defence industry to Hungary."

"So Rheinmetall has a large manufacturing initiative in Hungary for military vehicles that produce Leopard tanks. It is also set to produce this new wheeled RCH-155 howitzer," Burilkov said.

"And this creates an interesting situation where, whereas the foreign policy of Budapest might not always be in tune with the rest of the European Union, from the perspective of contributing to European security, the Hungarians contribute to a high level.”

Burilkov said that in terms of the capabilities of the Hungarian military, it is in good shape. And should it come to conflict, they would be able to contribute very meaningfully to the defence of the eastern flank.