High noon for von der Leyen as she faces Strasbourg standoff

The Ursula von der Leyen-led European Commission faces two votes of confidence on Thursday, only three months after having survived the last motion of censure.

At noon, the MEPs in Strasbourg will have their say on the two motions, one after the other. At least two-thirds of the votes cast, representing a majority of all its members, are needed to adopt a motion of censure.

A successful vote would force the entire European Commission to resign, but it would require 360 out of the 719 members of the European Parliament to say aye.

What are the motions of censure about?

The motions of censure have been tabled by the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) and The Left groups, respectively, and have been discussed in a joint debate last Monday.

The first one focuses on the European Commission’s environmental policies and recent trade agreements reached with the US and with Mercosur countries.

The motion argues that the agreement threatens Europe's farming industry by allowing products that do not meet EU environmental, social and health standards, creating unfair competition that puts thousands of European farmers and livestock producers at risk.

It also criticises the Commission's handling of irregular migration and an alleged lack of transparency. 

The Left’s motion has some points in common with the PfE one, namely the EU-Mercosur free trade deal, the EU-US trade deal, and von der Leyen's alleged lack of transparency.

But it also condemns the “Commission’s failure to address both the climate crisis and the social crisis across Europe”, and the Commission’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war, labelled as a “failure to act in response to the Israeli government’s brutal military assaults and systematic violations of international and humanitarian law in Gaza.”

During the joint debate, PfE President Jordan Bardella and The Left co-chair Manon Aubry voiced their criticism in a bid to convince their colleagues to vote for the respective motions.

Von der Leyen responded with a less defiant intervention compared to the one in July, when she had accused the promoters of the motion of censure of being under the control of "their puppet masters in Russia or elsewhere".

This time, von der Leyen chose a more conciliatory tone. "The point I am making is that we need to focus on what really matters, which is to deliver for Europeans," she said.

How are 'centrist coalition' groups expected to vote?

After two days of meetings and internal talks, almost all the political groups have adopted a standard line on the two motions of censure.

Von der Leyen’s EPP group with its 188 MEPs is fully aligned behind the Commission and will vote against both motions of censure.

EPP's chair Manfred Weber openly slammed the confidence votes, labelling them “a little bit ridiculous”, and a “simple propaganda tool” for their promoters.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group and its 136 MEPs will also not support the two no-confidence attempts, as made clear by their president, Iratxe García Pérez, during the plenary debate.

However, some S&D MEPs could adopt a different posture between the two votes: voting against the one put forward by PfE and not showing up or abstaining on the one tabled by The Left, the group some socialists feel is closer to their interests.

Renew Europe, which consists of 75 MEPs, is also clearly against the two motions of censure, with its chair Valérie Hayer labelling the parties that proposed the motions as “trolls”. 

The common line of the group is to vote no on both. “It is pretty clear that we are not playing that game,” Renew’s spokesperson Vincent Stuer told Euronews.

It remains unclear whether and how many liberal MEPs will break ranks or not attend. In the last confidence vote, 60 out of 75 followed the group’s line, with the others abstaining or absent.  

EPP, S&D and Renew form the “centrist coalition,” which backs the Commission, and the extent of their support will be a key outcome of the vote for von der Leyen.

How will the right and left sides of the room vote?

Moving on the right wing of the Parliament, the Patriots for Europe and its 84 MEPs are obviously voting for their own motion, but will probably also back the one coming from The Left.

Officially, the group has not declared a standard line. However, Italian MEP Roberto Vannacci (PfE) told Euronews he and his colleague will join the effort to topple the Commission, despite not agreeing with the wording on Gaza contained in The Left’s motion.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) with a total of 79 MEPs is leaving it free to its national delegations to decide how they will vote.

According to internal sources, it is expected to split up, as it did in the last confidence vote, when half of the group supported the motion and the other half either did not participate in the vote or voted against it. 

The “free vote” line is valid for both motions of censure, but it is unlikely that conservative MEPs could support The Left’s motion, given their positions on the war in Gaza and the Green Deal.

The Europe of Sovereign Nations group (ESN), whose 27 MEPs have consistently opposed the Commission, is likely to support the motions. 

“Our MEPs will of course vote in favour of the motion tabled by the Patriots. Many of them will also support the one tabled by The Left, even though its wording could naturally have led them to abstain”, an internal source from the group told Euronews.

Leftist groups of the Parliament are also expected to show some divisions. The Greens/EFA group (53 MEPs) is oriented to vote against both motions.

However, some of its MEPs from Spain and Italy are among the signatories of The Left's initiative and will vote for it in the plenary.

Finally, The Left and its 46 MEPs face a sharp dilemma, as the group remains firmly committed to toppling the Commission but does not want to join forces with the far right. 

Despite The Left’s chair Aubry’s promise not to vote for the PfE motion, the Italian party Five Star Movement will support it, and other delegations like the Irish Sinn Féin may follow.

While the threshold needed to topple the Commission will likely not be reached, the numbers to consider are those from the previous vote of confidence in July: 175 MEPs voted in favour of the motion of censure and 360 against.

Any increase in the first number would represent a symbolic victory for the proponents of the motion. In contrast, any decrease in the second would be a worrying signal for von der Leyen that her approval rate in the Parliament is shrinking.