Dutch elections: Five things to watch

The Netherlands on Wednesday will vote in a snap election, for the third vote in five years, in a parliamentary election that points to a win of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), which is advocating an anti-immigration and nationalist agenda.

Yet, the latest polls shows that the centre-left GroenLinks-PvdA (24 seats) and the centre-right Christian Democrat CDA (22 seats) are nearing the PVV's 29 seats, signaling a tight result and no clear path to forming a government for Wilders even if he wins.

The vote remains highly unpredictable as two-thirds of voters indicate they have not decided yet who they will vote for, according to local Dutch media.

Here’s what to look out for in Wednesday's election.

1. Smaller parties could make a real difference

In 2023, the Dutch election was dominated by tight race between Wilders-led PVV (37 seats) and GroenLinks-PvdA (25 seats), with former European Commissioner for the Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, at the helm of the party.

Traditionally, the Dutch system sees multiple, smaller parties playing a key role in deciding the government formation. However, the previous ballet held in 2023, saw a bifurcation of voters either choosing the right-wing or centre-left, which left little room for the smaller parties and indicated a severe ideological split among the Dutch.

This time around, polls show smaller, centre parties performing better compared to the previous ballot, which could make forming a majority in the parliament even harder.

In the Dutch system, where no party gets an absolute majority, a combination of parties would need 76 seats to be able to form a government.

Besides the PVV and GroenLinks-PvdA leading the polls again, the centre-right Christian Democrat CDA is rising and now projected to get 22 seats (up 17 seats from 2023).

It’s followed by centre-right VVD with 20 seats and liberal D66 with 17 seats, and far-right parties JA21 with 9 seats and Forum for Democracy (FvD) with 6 seats.

At least five parties will need to work together to form a new government, based on the latest opinion poll results.

2. The popularity of CDA’s ‘decency’ agenda

Newcomer Henri Bontenbal, the 42 year-old former energy and sustainability consultant who started leading the CDA in 2023, is a serious contender to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands.

Polls suggest he is seen as the compromise candidate for multiple parties - left and right - who would prefer him at the helm of the next government rather than Wilders.

Bontenbal's agenda of “decency and respect” and "getting back to work" - in reference to the standstill after the previous administration collapsed in June only a year after it took office over a conflict on migration - appears to be resonating with voters.

The outgoing government led by former head of the intelligence service, Dick Schoof, was confronted with controversies and internal divisions around hardline migration policies and green emissions, a hot button issue in the Netherlands.

After becoming the biggest party in the 2023 election, Wilders declined the role of prime minister but took a seat in parliament instead in a compromise move.

It is unlikely that future coalition partners will agree to having Wilders (62), who has been the leader of the PVV since 2005, as prime minister as he is seen as divisive figure, even if popular among the conservative Dutch public.

3. Support for far-right parties remains central

In 2023, nationalist and anti-immigrant parties PVV, FVD, JA21 and BBB - a party centered appealing to farmers founded in 2019 - got around 48 seats all together.

The current projections show the same result for the four far-right parties, but seats are distributed differently. This balance of power could be key when forming the government and attributing cabinet roles.

Although the PVV is still the most popular among them, polls suggest it would lose 8 seats compared to the last election. JA21 is set to get 9 seats, up 8 from just one in 2023, and FVD is projected to get 6, up 3 compared to last time.

Polling institute Ipsos said earlier this month that the growth of the PVV is not an isolated phenomenon and that support for the radical or conservative right is rising in the country, which saw violent anti-immigration protests in The Hague in September.

“The conservative right has grown strongly: from 10 seats in 2003 to 56 seats (37%) today," Ipsos said.

At the same time, support for the centre- right is shrinking, from 70 seats in 2023 to 41 in the latest poll. Meanwhile, support for the progressive left went down since the beginning of this century “from 65 seats (43%) in 2003 to 53 seats (35%) today.”

Ipsos' research also shows that voters who favor Wilders, beyond his political agenda, also do it as a protest against traditional party leaders who explicitly refuse to include him in government, despite being the largest political party in the country.

"In 2021, it was mainly older, lower class and medium-educated men who voted for the PVV. This time, the party is being considered by men, but also women, young and old."

"However, the average PVV voter is still less educated (only 19% is higher educated) and is more likely than the Dutch center voter to earn below-average income," Ipsos said.

4. A stronger position in Europe?

Under the helm of Prime Minister Dick Schoof, the technocrat who took office in July 2024, has struggled to retain some of the influence the small, but wealthy country, has enjoyed in shaping the European Union for decades.

This is in sharp contrast with Schoof's predecessor Mark Rutte, now NATO chief, who was Dutch prime minister for 14 years, and managed to put the Netherlands at the centre of EU discussions around the common budget, defence and migration.

The constant tensions in the cabinet and portfolio reshuffles in the Schoof government did help either. As a result, in just one year, four different ministers handled the migration file - seen as the most delicate by the government and the public opinion - with their European counterparts, which led to inaction.

A key question, besides who will be the next prime minister, is how long it will take for the Netherlands to form a government and keep it check.

After the last vote in November 2023, it took the country more than six months to form a coalition agreement, preventing the government from establishing a strong negotiating position in Brussels as a result of the instability.

5. Rise of ‘biased’ AI voting tools

Privacy watchdog Autoriteit Persoonsgegevens (AP) warned citizens against using Artificial Intelligence tools for voting advice in the run-up to the election, arguing that results generated by AI proved “unreliable and clearly biased.”

The AP watchdog compared four popular chatbots with national online voting assistance websites Kieskompas and StemWijzer. Its research showed that the chatbots often ended up suggesting with the same two parties, the PVV and GroenLinks-PvdA, repeatedly and systematically, regardless of the user's question.

“In more than half of the queries, the PVV or GroenLinks-PvdA came out on top. In one AI chatbot, that number rose to 80%,” the AP said. As a result, smaller parties like D66, VDD or the Socialist Party (SP) were almost universally excluded of the scope.

According to a survey by broadcaster RTL about one percent of the still undecided voters - which amounts to approximately 700.000 people - will use chatbots for advice.