Vote on new Commission signals EU Parliament instability and ambiguity

Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission received the green light from the Parliament, but the outcome of the vote portends stormy waters more than plain sailing.

The 370 votes in favour represent 54% of all votes cast, and even less (51%) of the total number of MEPs, 719. For one reason or another, only one in two lawmakers was able to endorse the new college of commissioners.

This is the slimmest majority in history for a new Commission, and in hindsight, there may be no stable majority at all during the five-year legislature.

How many groups will form the majority?

The voting records highlight how the three centrist groups that formed the previous legislature’s majority could not guarantee a simple majority in the chamber.

The European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe accounted for 308 votes together—far from the threshold of 360 votes.

For different reasons, the centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D suffered significant defections. Spain’s Partido Popular, an EPP member with 22 MEPs, voted against the new college because it includes Spanish Vice President Teresa Ribera, a member of its rival centre-left PSOE (S&D) party.

Belgian and French Socialists opposed von der Leyen’s choice of conservative right-wing Italian, Raffaele Fitto, as vice president, which also lost votes from a couple of Italian Socialist MEPs. The 14 German S&D MEPs either voted against or abstained.

This does not mean that these groups will always be split on legislative issues, but it means that to guarantee a majority to pass legislation, some form of political crutch will likely be needed, whether from the right or the left of the hemicycle.

“I believe that we could also find some consensus, some agreement with the Greens on the one hand, or the European Conservatives and Reformists on the other hand,” David McAllister, a prominent, veteran German EPP MEP, told Euronews.

This had always been planned by EPP leader Manfred Weber, who envisaged a “broad centre in the European Parliament, from the Greens to ECR” during a press conference the day before the vote.

However, neither the Greens nor the ECR have entirely supported the European Commission. The Greens/EFA group was split, with 27 votes in favour, 19 against, and six abstentions, while the ECR had 39 lawmakers against, 33 in favour, and four abstentions.

Greens and Conservatives at odds with each other

Above all, these two groups do not seem eager to cooperate with one another.

“There is not a real majority today in the European Union. [...] Manfred Weber thinks that it can one day turn to the far right to build relationships or alliances, destroying environmental laws in particular. And then the next day, when it suits them, turn to the coalition of democrats and pro-European forces. It’s absolutely unworthy,” Green MEP Marie Toussaint, who voted against the college along with her entire French delegation, told Euronews.

Other Green members voted in favour of the new Commission but continue to highlight their disagreement with what they see as a clear shift to the right. “We still have fundamental problems with Fitto as executive vice president, and we really think that is a mistake. But it is also clear that we do want to work now,” Greens/EFA co-chair Bas Eickhout told Euronews after the vote.

On the other side, Conservative MEPs who supported the Commission claim their choice was made precisely to reverse the Green Deal and change the previous legislature’s policies. “There may be different numbers in this Parliament compared to the previous one. I think that the role of the European Conservatives will be to really move the axis of this European legislature rightwards,” Carlo Fidanza, head of the Brothers of Italy delegation—the largest in the ECR—told Euronews.

Lawmakers from ECR's Polish member party PiS voted against the Commission, but this did not concern ECR’s co-chair Nicola Procaccini, who recalled the group’s tradition of allowing delegations freedom of choice.

Nor does he feel he belongs to a new majority, indeed in his words, “there is no majority”.

“In the EU, the Commission is not linked to a majority in the European Parliament. There was no ‘Ursula majority’ last time, and there is no majority now. Each vote will have a different majority, based on contents,” he claimed during a press briefing.

This is the prevailing sentiment in Strasbourg after the vote, and the President of the European Commission likely knows it. Ursula von der Leyen never mentioned the word “majority” during her long speech presenting the college of commissioners to the Parliament, nor did she mention any political groups she plans to rely on.

Her mantra remains cooperation with “pro-EU”, “pro-Ukraine”, and “pro-rule of law” political forces, adaptable to the Greens or the Conservatives depending on the circumstances and the topics at hand.

On the other hand, the European Parliament can continue its legislative work even if fractured and with an unstable majority, according to German Socialist MEP René Repasi, who believes the “real work” is done at the technical level in the EP’s committees.

“[This situation] basically means that we need to trust more that compromise amendments forged at a committee level will be respected by the plenary,” he told Euronews. “If we make compromise amendments in committees, we do not reopen them here in the plenary. I think there is a way we can move forward.”