What's next for ECOWAS after three members leave?

West Africa's regional bloc known as ECOWAS is facing significant challenges after three junta-led countries formally quit the group, forming their own alliance and weakening the bloc's standing and political authority.

The withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the bloc — now left with 12 member countries — was the culmination of a yearlong period of talks and diplomatic efforts aimed at trying to get them to reverse their decision, announced in January 2024.

The departures were the first of its kind in the bloc's 50-year history's and analysts warn that a weaker ECOWAS could further undermine the increasingly fragile region.

What is ECOWAS and what does it do?

Widely seen as West Africa’s leading political and regional authority, the 15-nation bloc was formed in 1975 to “promote economic integration” among its member states. The bloc has also often collaborated with members to solve domestic challenges, from politics to economics and security.

The bloc guarantees its members visa-free travel and access to a more than $700 billion market for a population of around 400 million people.

However, in parts of West Africa, analysts say ECOWAS suffers from a legitimacy crisis, with citizens seeing it as representing only the interests of leaders and not theirs.

Why did the 3 junta-led countries leave?

Relations between ECOWAS and the coup-hit Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso began to deteriorate after the bloc imposed stringent sanctions on Niger to pressure its military to reverse the coup it had staged.

The bloc has long used sanctions as a key tool in trying to reverse coups but those imposed on Niger were the harshest yet. Neighbors shut borders with the country, cut off more than 70% of Niger's electricity supply, suspended financial transactions and froze Niger's assets held by the bloc.

The three countries called the sanctions “inhumane” and accused ECOWAS of “moving away from the ideals of its founding fathers and pan-Africanism.”

What changed after the three nations left?

After leaving ECOWAS, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso created their own alliance known as the Alliance of Sahel States, or AES, named after the vast southern fringe of the Sahara Desert region.

The three severed military ties with longstanding Western partners, including the United States and France, and turned to Russia for military support.

ECOWAS has attempted to ease tensions with the AES, reversing last February the sanctions that the bloc had imposed and trying to revamp talks, which the AES rebuffed.

What happens now?

Although ECOWAS has said it would leave the doors open for the three nations to continue to enjoy benefits as other bloc members do, the three junta-led countries are launching their own travel documents for their citizens.

The bloc has also said that trade would continue as usual. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are still members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union — meaning trade and free movement of goods should continue among its eight-nation members. The monetary union includes the three junta-led countries as well as Senegal, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Togo and Benin.

Officially, a six-month extension for talks between ECOWAS and the three countries expires in July, said Babacar Ndiaye, a political analyst at the West Africa-focused Wathi think tank. But there is little expectation that the AES countries would "reconsider their withdrawal,” Ndiaye said.

There are concerns a weakened ECOWAS would be unable to handle security crises spreading from the conflict-battered Sahel to coastal West African nations.

ECOWAS is also unlikely to be in a position to try and reverse the military takeovers in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. There will also likely be fewer investments in the three countries, which are among the region's poorest, said Charlie Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital.