Can we force a climate breakthrough? Scientists outline strategy to tip the system
A group of international researchers has developed a new method to identify so-called positive tipping points, when small shifts in behaviour, technology or policy could spark sweeping, self-sustaining climate progress.
Their proposed approach, published in Sustainability Science, aims to pinpoint where these moments might emerge, how close we are to reaching them and what actions we take could drive change.
They argue that making these tipping points measurable could help fast-track the global transition away from carbon-heavy systems, before it’s too late.
“The global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C,” Tim Lenton, a co-author from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who has been studying climate change and tipping points since the 1990s, said in a statement.
“The challenge now is to identify potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward – while avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers and impacts.”
What is a positive tipping point?
Tipping points mark thresholds where a small intervention can trigger large-scale, often irreversible change. It is where change becomes self-propelling within a system, causing it to shift from one state to another.
Climate scientists have long warned about negative tipping points – such as melting glaciers and thawing permafrost, for example – that push the planet toward disaster. But this study shifts the focus to potential key moments for climate action.
“Positive tipping points in human societies and economies can spark rapid reductions in emissions and other environmental harm,” the authors write.
Determining where those markers begin could be key to designing better policies and identifying the moments when small changes unlock bigger shifts.
Their methodology looks at where similar systems have ‘tipped’ in the past, when change became self-sustaining and what factors might speed up or delay that process.
The authors also distinguish between tipping toward green alternatives and tipping away from fossil fuels and carbon-intensive activities, arguing that both are essential to make lasting cuts in emissions.
The authors pointed to once-unthinkable smoking bans as a model for how fast attitudes can change. France, the UK and Milan – Italy’s industrial capital – have already banned smoking in many outdoor public spaces.
Where are tipping points already appearing?
While it may sound idealistic, many other such shifts could already be underway.
Two recent reports from the UN found that the global switch to renewable energy has now passed a “positive tipping point” where solar and wind power will continue to become cheaper and more widespread. More than 90 per cent of new renewable energy projects are now cheaper than fossil fuels.
As electric vehicles (EVs) have become cheaper and easier to adopt, more people have begun to drive them, too. Last year, the International Energy Authority (IEA) reported that EVs should account for 50 per cent of global car sales in 2030 – part of a broader shift toward renewable energy and green choices worldwide.
EV uptake is now growing fast in Europe, helping to reduce persistently high emissions. Although transport remains Europe’s most polluting sector, analysts say the continent is on track to save 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide this year thanks to EVs alone.
“We know positive tipping can happen in sectors such as power and road transport, and we think the UK is close to a tipping point in the uptake of heat pumps,” said co-author Steve Smith, also from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
As more people embrace heat pumps, solar panels or EVs, their performance improves, prices drop and infrastructure expands, all of which reinforce their adoption and speed the transition.
“Other transformations – such as a major shift away from meat consumption – might also be more likely than they appear,” he added.
Turning theory into momentum
The authors of the paper have made their methodology open for all to build upon, refine or use in practice. They hope that doing so will allow researchers and policymakers to identify and activate these positive feedback loops faster.
Frank Geels, a co-author from the University of Manchester, said the approach could help focus climate efforts on the moments that matter most.
“These [positive tipping points] offer crucial antidotes to the doom and gloom that seems to permeate climate mitigation debates in policy and mass media.”