Hungary's complicated enlargement policy: No to Ukraine, yes to the Western Balkans

Hungary is known in the European Union for its opposition to Ukraine's EU membership bid, its veto pledge threatening the opening of negotiation chapters for Kyiv.

Yet the Hungarian stance on enlargement represents a nuanced balancing act, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán strongly supports the efforts of the Western Balkan countries to join the EU, as well as those of Moldova and Georgia.

The Hungarian government has made it clear that Russia is responsible for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has called for an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Hungary provides humanitarian aid and electricity to Ukraine, but opposes any financial or military support to Kyiv.

The argument from Budapest is that further European support will only prolong the war and lead to military escalation, endangering Europe's peace.

Hungary has come under scrutiny from some of its European partners for maintaining political and trade ties with Russia through energy purchases.

Why is Hungary so set against Ukraine's EU accession?

Hungary is the loudest opponent of Ukraine's EU bid within the bloc, arguing that Ukraine's joining the EU would be negative for Europe and Hungary in particular.

On this, Budapest is in the minority among European leaders who opened negotiations with Ukraine in 2023, in a vote in which Orbán was notably absent.

The Hungarian government initiated a so-called national consultation this year, a non-binding domestic poll on Ukraine's bid to join the EU, in which 95% of respondents opposed Ukraine's membership, according to Budapest.

“I would not like Hungary to be a member of an alliance where a newly admitted member is constantly in danger of war and can drag us into it. If Ukrainians become members of the union, this war will also become our war. And we do not want that," Orbán told journalists at the European Council meeting last week in Brussels.

Hungary also argues that Ukraine's eastern borders are not set in stone and is not against possible concessions, even though President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said he will not cede territory to Russia for a ceasefire, as this would be contrary to the country's constitution.

Budapest also argues that Ukraine's EU membership will be costly for Europe, as a large portion of the European common budget could be redirected to its reconstruction.

Ukraine could also benefit from the bloc's cohesion and agricultural funds. Budapest is a net recipient of both. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the enlargement will inevitably lead to revisions to the common budget.

As an alternative, Orbán proposed a strategic partnership with Ukraine, a status Kyiv already has since 2017, when it signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.

What about the Western Balkan enlargement?

Meanwhile, Hungary supports the EU's enlargement to the Western Balkans, including Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Hungarian Minister for European Affairs János Bóka said in October that their place is clearly in the European Union.

"The countries of the Western Balkans have been fulfilling the majority of the conditions for membership for years, yet they are not progressing at the pace they deserve," Bóka said.

Budapest argues that enlargement would boost regional stability.

"It is clear that if there is no stability in the Western Balkans, if there is unrest, and if conflicts determine everyday life, then there will be constant uncertainty radiating from the region," Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said last July.

Hungary has strong business interests in the regions, particularly in energy and banking. Budapest also maintains ties with neighbouring Serbia. The two countries are closely cooperating in trade, migration, energy and defence.

What about Moldova and Georgia?

Hungary supports Moldova's EU accession without any preconditions.

"Hungary has supported Moldova's EU membership so far, and we will continue to do so; there is no compromise or debate on this," Viktor Orbán said earlier this year, adding that Moldova provides a much-needed workforce to the EU.

Hungary also supports Georgia's accession, although the process stalled after tensions between the European Union and the ruling Georgian Dream party.

The European Parliament also issued a resolution voicing concerns about the result of the Georgian parliamentary elections and calling for a re-run of the vote. After the election, Orbán travelled to Tbilisi, expressing his support for the Georgian government.

Will unanimity be necessary to finalise the process?

While the Hungarian government rejects the idea of changing unanimity rules to facilitate the process for Ukraine and wants to maintain its ability to veto, Orbán has shown in the past that he is willing to do so when there are economic incentives.

At a crunch EU summit in December 2023, Orbán left the room where European leaders held their private discussions, allowing them to push through the opening of negotiations with Ukraine at 26 without Hungary's veto.

Earlier that week, the European Commission released 10,2 billion euros in frozen EU funds for Hungary, citing "some progress" on judicial reforms.

At the time, the EU denied allegations that the two decisions were connected.

Two months later, at a summit in February 2024, Orbán lifted his veto on the Ukraine Facility, allowing the EU to green-light a €50 billion support package for Kyiv.

If Orbán loses power next year, when the country is due to hold parliamentary elections in April, the country's policy towards Ukraine's accession could change dramatically under an opposition-led government.