Dutch election stuns in night full of surprises: What you need to know

The Netherlands voted on Wednesday in a parliamentary resulting in a too close to call result with rightwing frontman Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom (PPV) and rising progressive leader Rob Jetten of the D66, both getting 26 seats.

The difference between the two parties, as of Thursday morning, with more than 98% of the votes counted, is just a mere 2.000 votes. It could take several days before the final result is confirmed. Here is what we know so far:

1. The (unexpected) rise of D66

D66 was projected to get only 17 seats, compared to the 26 it received in the ballot.

What clicked for D66 in the end?

Jetten (38), who started leading the liberal party in 2023, seems to have managed to convince voters by his performance in the final television debates.

Jetten, whose party got nine seats in the 150-seat parliament in the previous election held in 2023, gave a good performance in the first broadcaster of the campaign, held just two weeks before. Wilders did not participate following a terror threat against him and temporarily halted his campaign.

With Wilders out of the spotlight, Jetten’s optimism and his pledge to build a constructive coalition, seems to have resonated with the Dutch public opinion.

The party scored its best result since it was created in 1966 on Wednesday, a first for a group that tends to perform either very well or severely underperform in elections.

“Millions of Dutch people have turned the page of negativity today and opted for a politics that will allow us to look forward again,” Jetten said in his speech after the exit polls came in from his campaign venue in Leiden.

2. Centre-left sees big losses, Frans Timmermans steps down

The centre-left coalition of GroenLinks and PvdA - a joint list combining the Greens and the Dutch Labour Party - suffered significant losses in a disappointing night.

In the previous election held in 2023, the party came second compared to its fourth place in yesterday's ballot. In both cases, Frans Timmermans, the former Commissioner known as the father of the Green Deal, was the lead candidate.

This time, under his leadership, his party lost 5 seats compared to 2023.

As a result, Timmermans announced on Wednesday night that he will step down from his role to make space for a next generation, acknowledging a poor performance.

"Of course I am very disappointed in our result, because we have fought so hard for it," Timmermans said in his speech.

"It is clear that I have not been able to convince people to vote for us. And I take full responsibility for that," he said.

3. Big losses for the PVV

It wasn't the great night Wilders for hoping for either. The rightwing firebrand is running tight for the first spot with the D66 but lost seven seats compared to 2023.

His goal of becoming Prime Minister of the Netherlands has become practically impossible even if his group takes the first spot. With the rise of the progressives and the reluctance of multiple groups to work with him, Wilders has no clear path to form government. Still, he did not concede on his high ambitions.

"We had hoped for a different result," Wilders said on X. "We are more combative than ever and still the second and perhaps largest party in the Netherlands."

The PVV became the largest party for the first time in 2023, where it joined the cabinet as a coalition partner for the first time too.

While his party lost seats, other far-right parties, JA21 and Forum for Democracy (FvD) did well, signaling ongoing support from Dutch voters to hard right policies.

JA21 won eight seats, compared to just one in the previous election, while the FvD claimed seven seats, compared to three in 2023 ballot.

Armida van Rij, senior research fellow at think tank Center for European Reform (CER) said: "The election results won't mark the end of populism in the Netherlands. While the PVV may have lost seats, the far-right vote has not disappeared, it has splintered. About 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now vote for JA21.”

4.What does it mean for Europe?

The outgoing right-wing Dutch government, led by an independent technocrat Dick Schoof, the former head of the national intelligence service, had a hard time in Brussels.

As an independent, Schoof did not count with the backing of a party, contrary to the rest of European leaders who usually belong to a political group, and the constant tensions in the cabinet, followed by reshuffles, made policy volatile in sharp contrast with his predecessor Mark Rutte's influential Europea standing.

Rutte, now NATO chief, was prime minister for 14 years and put the Netherlands at the centre of EU discussions around the common budget, defence and migration.

If Jetten, aligned with the liberal Renew political family of Emmanuel Macron and pro-European, succeeds in forming a government, analysts say he could elevate the voice of the Netherlands in the style of Mark Rutte, who was a central player.

The Netherlands is a founding member of the EU.

5. Forming a coalition will be hard and the VVD will be key

One thing is clear: forming a coalition government will not be easy.

Parties need a combined 76 seats to form a majority.

Surprisingly, the key to this number will be in hands of the centre-right VVD.

With no majorities, the next government will be a coalition. Whether it is a center-left or centre-right agreement, any form of coalition will need the support of the VVD.

The party, formerly led by Rutte and now chaired by Dilan Yeşilgöz, is projected to get 22 seats, losing just two seats compared to the 2023 election.

This is surprising because it would indicate the party was not punished for entering a coalition with Wilders' party, positioning much further the right than its standing, nor for the failure of the government to stay put leading to a snap election. The coalition collapsed in June this year following a fundamental disagreement over migration.

Other coalition partners, the conservative NSC and the farmers' interest party BBB both lost big, as did the PVV. Analysts suggest the three were punished for their poor record in government, achieving significantly less than what was promised when they took office. the NSC has disappeared from the Dutch political map after losing all its seats last night.

In 2023, it took the country more than six months to reach a coalition agreement, undermining the Netherlands' negotiating position in Brussels as a result of instability.